901
FXUS63 KILX 210851
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
251 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE BITTER COLD NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND KICKS IN.
TONIGHT LOWS DROP NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ONCE MORE, WITH WIND CHILLS
OF -20 TO -10. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9PM UNTIL 6AM.
- THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTH
OF I-72, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OF A MACOMB TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE BELOW HALF AN INCH.
- A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE (20-40%) FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
THE EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN OUR MAIN TOPIC FOR AT LEAST ONE
MORE DAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.
THERE IS AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 21Z. WIND CHILLS ARE RANGING FROM -20 TO -10 SOUTH OF I-
72 AND -30 TO -20 NORTH OF I-72. WIND CHILLS SHOULD START RELAXING
SOME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE ONE MORE BITTERLY
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WARMING TREND STARTS. ANOTHER COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 03Z (9PM). WE WILL SEE
LOWS OF -3 TO 4 DEGREES AND WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -10.
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS
(GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS) AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFF TO
OUR EAST, ALLOWING WAA TO REALLY KICK IN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL SHOW
IMPROVEMENT, WITH VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS (AROUND 20 DEGREES). BY SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS WILL BE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT DROP
DOWN TO AROUND 6-12 DEGREES DUE TO A QUICK, WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT EVENING.
WITH THE INCREASED WAA AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE IS A 20-50%
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTH OF I-72. THE
GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OF A MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE. ROADS COULD
GET SLICK IN SPOTS AS THE SNOW ACCUMULATES. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
BELOW HALF AN INCH, WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF 0.1 INCH AND 10% CHANCE
OF 0.5 INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF THE MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.
AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND THE SURFACE TEMPS. AS OF NOW, THE DAYTIME HIGHS ARE NEAR
FREEZING FOR SUNDAY, SO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ARE POSSIBLE.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S, SO A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO BE
BETTER REFINED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. HOWEVER,
A COUPLE OF BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
AND EFFECT BMI AND CMI ONLY. THIS WILL LAST ABOUT AN HOUR AT BMI
AND POSSIBLE TWO AT CMI. AS THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH, VIS WILL
DROP TO AROUND 2 MILES AND CIGS WILL DROP TO BELOW 3KFT. WILL HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH THOSE SITES TO COVER IT. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES,
FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS TOMORROW, WITH CLEAR SKIES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THEN BECOME WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE OVER 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND
THEN BECOME LIGHTER...BELOW 10KTS TOMORROW.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-042>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-
071>073.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ILZ041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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