700
FXUS63 KILX 220826
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
226 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WE BEGIN TO WARM TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. WE
CAN SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW
WEEK.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-72, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OF A GALESBURG TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE, TODAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE BELOW HALF AN
INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025
THIS MORNING WE ARE STILL COLD, BUT THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS. THE
WARMING TREND HAS BEGUN! HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WIND CHILLS (AROUND 20 DEGREES). AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL DIG INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
MAKE THE UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL, HELPING THE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES. BY SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. LOWS WILL BE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 2-8 DEGREES DUE TO
A QUICK, WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT EVENING. REBOUNDING FROM
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUICK.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS
NORTH OF I-72, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (50-70% CHANCE) NORTH OF A
GALESBURG TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70. THERE IS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IN CENTRAL IL
AND THE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD, KEEPING THE
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS LOW. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TO THE
DGZ TO ALLOW DECENT SNOW PRODUCTION IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES. THERE IS A 50-80%
CHANCE OF 0.1 INCH OF SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-72, ACCORDING TO THE
HREF 00Z.22 RUN. THE PROBABILITY OF 0.5 INCH IS BARELY EXISTENT,
WITH A 10% CHANCE IN KNOX COUNTY, AND NONE ELSEWHERE.
AFTER THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION, THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY RELAXED.
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, THAT I SPOKE ON LAST NIGHT, HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ON
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF OUR CWA, WITH SNOW BRIEFING REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN IL
SUNDAY NIGHT.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES MOST OF THE PERIOD,
UNTIL THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS MVFR
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SYSTEM
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, THIS WILL AFFECT ONLY PIA, BMI, AND
SPI. DEC AND CMI WILL SEE THIS LATER...LIKELY AFTER END OF TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TO START AND THEN
HIGH CIRRUS ARRIVES, FOLLOWED BY MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND
AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVE AT PIA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
THEN EARLY EVENING FOR BMI, SPI, DEC, CMI. THEN SNOW ARRIVES,
BRINGING MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VIS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS. GUSTS OVER
20KTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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