259
FXUS63 KILX 162041
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
241 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NW WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR KNOX, STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY FOR WIND CHILLS OF 15 BELOW
ZERO OR COLDER.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN BELOW
ZERO IN SPOTS EACH NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 15 OR
20 BELOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY FROM I-72
SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE IL
RIVER AT MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EASTWARD. EXPECT JUST A
DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW AS THIS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY ACTIVITY
SHIFTS EAST OF IL DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL IL SHIFTS INTO INDIANA BY SUNSET. CLEARING OF
LOW MVFR CLOUDS IS OCCURING WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY AND EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING.
THOUGH MORE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY SW
CWA AHEAD OF NEXT WX SYSTEM. VERY COLD LOWS TONIGHT OF ZERO TO 5
ABOVE FROM LINCOLN AND CHAMPAIGN NORTH AND LOWER TEENS IN
SOUTHEAST IL. BRISK NW WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND WIND CHILLS TO LOWER TO 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
I-70 OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. ADDED KNOX COUNTY INTO THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY (IN ADDITION TO STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES) FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY FOR WIND CHILLS OF 15 BELOW OR
COLDER. ISSUED NPWILX PRODUCT FOR THIS COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
KNOX, STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT/MON MORNING.
A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO SPREAD A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SW IL LATE TONIGHT OR MON
MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN MON AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL IL. JUST A
DUSTING TO NEAR A HALF INCH OF SNOW FROM MACOMB TO SPRINGFIELD SW
ON MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ARE MAINLY OVER SW/SOUTHERN CWA MON
NIGHT AND TUE WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE (HALF INCH OR
LESS). HEAVIER SNOWS APPEAR TO AFFECT AREAS SW OF CWA OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. QUITE COLD MONDAY WITH
HIGHS 10-15F FROM LINCOLN AND CHAMPAIGN NORTH AND LOWER 20S SE OF
I-70. LOWS MON NIGHT ZERO TO 5 BELOW NORTH OF LINCOLN AND AROUND
10F IN SOUTHEAST IL. WIND CHILLS OF 15-20 BELOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING NORTH OF I-72, AND MAY NEED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THEN. EVEN AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 WHERE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 10 BELOW, MAY BE CLOSE TO THIS
CRITERIA AS FAR SOUTH AS CHARLESTON/MATTOON. HIGHS TUE AROUND 10F
NORTH OF I-72 AND MID TO UPPER TEENS IN SOUTHEAST IL.
AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL IL DURING TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
APPEARING LIKELY TUE NIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST IL AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WX ADVISORY. WINDS CHILLS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING ARE 10-15 BELOW NORTH OF I-72, COLDEST BY KNOX
AND STARK COUNTIES AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW SE OF I-70. BUT REINFORCING
COLDER/ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH WIND
CHILLS BACK DOWN TO 15-20 BELOW OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL AND 10-15
BELOW IN SOUTHEAST IL. SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED OVER MUCH OF CWA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO IL ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER BITTER
COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT WITH LOWS ZERO TO 4 BELOW CENTRAL IL AND
ZERO TO 4 ABOVE IN SOUTHEAST IL. HIGHS FRI IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S, CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S SAT AND UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S NEXT SUNDAY (FINALLY BACK ABOVE FREEZING). AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF IL BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE AND EXTENDED OUTLOOKS SHOWS TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING 40S
ON MON/FEB 24TH.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MVF CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPI FIRST, AND THEN BMI AND CMI AROUND
00Z. WHEN THIS OCCURS, EXPECTING CIGS TO RISE TO 2KFT OR ABOVE.
THIS WONT LAST LONG EITHER AS CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR LEVELS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS IMPACTS THE TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. WILL ADD A PROB30 AT
SPI STARTING AT 15Z AS THIS COULD BE THE FIRST TAF SITE TO SEE ANY
LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 26-28 KTS AT ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS DECREASE MORE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER TOMORROW.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST MONDAY
FOR ILZ027-028-030.
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