011
FXUS63 KILX 171746
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN
SPOTS EACH NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 15 OR 20
BELOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
THE MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-70 WITH
LITTLE OR NO SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-72 TO PARIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CANCELED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING OVER KNOX, STARK
AND MARSHALL COUNTIES AROUND 915 AM AS WIND CHILLS SLOWLY
MODERATED TO 7-12 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR NORTHERN CWA. CONTINUE THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OVER REST OF CENTRAL IL (EXCLUDING
EFFINGHAM, JASPER, CRAWFORD, CLAY, RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES)
FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. |
INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL
MAINLY SW OF I-74 AS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT IS HEADING EASTWARD
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AND HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER THAN WHAT HRRR
MODEL WAS SHOWING. LEANED ON OTHER CAMS THAT SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
JUST A DUSTING POSSIBLE AS WE STILL THINK THEIR WILL BE WEAKENING
TRENDS WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES INTO VERY DRY AIR
MASS OVER CENTRAL IL. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT
SOUTH OF I-72 DURING THIS EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHERN/SW IL OVERNIGHT.
VERY COLD TEMPS WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS OVER CWA WITH
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FROM PEORIA WHERE WIND CHILLS WERE 5-10F
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS AVERAGED 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE OVER REST OF
CENTRAL IL AND JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN SOUTHEAST IL. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN MID TO UPPER TEENS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL,
RANGING FROM 10-15F FROM PEORIA NORTH AND LOWER 20S IN SOUTHEAST
IL. NW WINDS TO BE A BIT STRONGER OVER NE CWA WHERE WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LOWER, WITH ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTHERN CWA REST OF TODAY.
07
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG, NEARLY 1050MB, AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS RESULTING IN BITTERLY COLD BUT OTHERWISE FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE COMING
OFF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF I-70 TO LOW 20S SOUTH. AS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INCHES TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT, ESPECIALLY ON THE
285-295K SURFACES. THIS WILL DRIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE LOWER
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SOUTH OF I-70 TONIGHT. MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL
SKIRT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA BOUNDARY WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING, HREF PROBABILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS 70 PERCENT
OR GREATER ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO PANA LINE WITH
VALUES DROPPING TO 10 PERCENT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE I-74
CORRIDOR. THE PROBABILITY FOR ONE INCH OF SNOW BY 12Z TUESDAY IS
NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER THIS INITIAL CHANCE FOR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ENDS TUESDAY MORNING, IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE DRY. TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A DEEP UPPER
WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CLOSE OFF AT 500MB
WHILE A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A VERY DEEP
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE (NEAR THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 600 MB)
WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR VERY EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION AND
HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (16-19:1). A SHARP CUT-OFF IN SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS IS USUAL WITH
THESE SITUATIONS, THIS MAKES MESSAGING SNOW TOTALS A BIT TRICKY
AS A SHIFT OF A COUNTY OR TWO CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
GETTING HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VERSUS LITTLE TO NO SNOW
AT ALL.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH / CLOSED H5 LOW DIGS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CUT
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. INSTABILITY IS SHALLOW,
THOUGH, TOPPING OUT BELOW 800MB, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THIS NEXT
BATCH OF SNOW FAIRLY LIGHT.
ALL IN ALL, NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES FOR 48-HOUR SNOW TOTALS
ENDING MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 1-5 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-70, 0-2 INCHES NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR AND NOTHING TO
A DUSTING NORTH OF RUSHVILLE TO PARIS. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS FAR DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS (SOUTH OF
I-64).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER WAVE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BITTERLY COLD THROUGH THE WEEK...
THE COLD, CANADIAN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
EACH NIGHT/MORNING, EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH A
FEW SPOTS DIPPING BELOW ZERO. MEANWHILE WIND CHILL VALUES DIP
ANYWHERE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH TO 15 OR 20 BELOW IN THE
NORTH. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS EACH MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING,
ADVISORIES ARE ONGOING ACROSS KNOX, STARK, AND MARSHALL COUNTIES.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN HOISTED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXCEPT FOR THE SIX
COUNTIES IN OUR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF I-70.
DEUBELBEISS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A DIMINISHING WAVE OF SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
KSPI AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER VSBYS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR. TO THE NORTH AND EAST, ANOTHER WAVE SHOULD
APPROACH, BUT KEEP MOST IMPACTS TO THE SOUTH, ALTHOUGH KSPI AND
KDEC COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW LOWER VSBYS TO IFR, ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY 09Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. WINDS WNW 10-12 KTS SHIFTING TO N AROUND 10
KTS AFTER 00Z.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.
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