357
FXUS63 KILX 180225
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
825 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO WILL BE
COMMON EACH NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL IL NORTH OF
I-70 OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL IL.
- THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-74. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-72 TO PARIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
HAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PASS THROUGH THE JACKSONVILLE-
SPRINGFIELD-DECATUR CORRIDOR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT PUT
DOWN A DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW. THIS HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OVER EASTERN IL, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN IA,
NORTHERN MO, AND WEST CENTRAL IL, WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SOUTH
OF A SPRINGFIELD TO MATTOON LINE, WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 1 INCH SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LATEST CAMS SHOWS THIS AREA
OF SNOW DISSIPATING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AROUND DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN ON
STEADY 10-15 MPH NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL PUSH LOW TEMPS TO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF A CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON LINE, AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FARTHER SOUTH. COMBINED EFFECTS OF WIND
AND COLD WILL DROP WIND CHILLS TO -10 TO -20F NORTH OF I-70, AND
WILL CONTINUE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CONTINUED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL IL FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR WIND CHILLS OF 10-20 BELOW ZERO
NORTH OF I-70 AND AS POSSIBLY A BIT COLDER OVER KNOX AND STARK
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE
FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW FROM LINCOLN NORTH TO 7-11F FROM I-70
SOUTHEAST.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAD MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AND SPRINGFIELD
PICKING UP LIGHT SNOW SINCE 1 PM WITH 3-4 MILE VISIBILITY. THE
LIGHT SNOW IS SW OF A MACOMB TO DECATUR LINE AND JUST MOVING INTO
TAYLORVILLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING THIS LIGHT SNOW, BUT ITS
MOVING INTO VERY DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL IL, SO SOME OF IT IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND (VIRGA) PER LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. THE CAMS SHOW
THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY FROM I-72 SOUTH
INTO THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST IL
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW (TRACE TO LESS
THAN A HALF INCH) IS POSSIBLE.
A WINTER STORM TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE AND INTO THE
MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO SW IL TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN
HALF OF CWA TUE NIGHT, WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEAST IL. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES (CLAY, RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE) WHERE
WE CURRENTLY HAVE NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. VERY COLD HIGHS
TUE AROUND 10F NW OF I-55 AND 15-18F IN SOUTHEAST IL. LOWS TUE
NIGHT OF ZERO TO 5 NW OF I-55 AND 10-14F FROM I-70 SOUTHEAST. WIND
CHILLS LOWER TO 10-15 BELOW FROM I-55 NW AND COLDEST FROM MACOMB
TO GALESBURG AND PERU NW WHERE AROUND 15 BELOW.
WINTER STORM SYSTEM TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST BY
SUNSET WED WHILE A VERY STRONG 530 DM 500 MB LOW DIGS DOWN TOWARD
THE IA/IL BORDER. THIS FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY NE CWA LATER WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING BUT A DUSTING AT BEST. HIGHS WED 10-15F
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL AND AROUND 20F IN SOUTHEAST IL. BITTER
COLD WIND CHILLS DROP BACK TO 10-20 BELOW OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING OVER MUCH OF CWA AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN. LOWS WED NIGHT OF ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER
CENTRAL IL AND 1-5 ABOVE IN SOUTHEAST IL.
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1045-1052MB) DIVES DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES DROPS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THU EVENING AND OVER THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY SUNSET FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY BUT CONTINUED VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THU, BUT VERY COLD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, WITH
LOWS THU NIGHT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE, AND EVEN A BIT BELOW ZERO NW OF
THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG. LIGHTER WINDS THU NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS FROM GETTING MUCH LOWER THAN AIR TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S AND MODERATE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S NEXT MONDAY FEB
24TH. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FEB 25-MAR 3 HAS 40-50% CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL AND GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS OVER NW IL. SO EARLY SPRING LIKE WEATHER LOOKS TO
FINALLY RETURN TO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
AN AREA OF -SN HAS MOVED INTO KSPI-KDEC, AND WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOUR THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL PRIMARILY
BE MVFR, THOUGH PERIODIC DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THIS BAND. NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE IMPEDED BY
DRY AIR, SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF -SN AND LOWER CEILINGS OUT OF
KPIA-KBMI. KCMI WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE -SN
AND MVFR CEILINGS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY STAY
VFR THERE, BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND AS NEEDED. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AROUND 06-08Z, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. 10-12 KT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER NORTH LATE, AND REMAIN AT 10-12 KT
THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
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