594
FXUS63 KILX 180813
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
213 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED AND IS NOW 40 PERCENT OR LESS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-72 TO TUSCOLA AND 70-90 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-70.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MODERATE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING NORTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING, A STRONG 1050+MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
THE MIDWEST. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS, MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-72 THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD
WITH MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
THIS EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION IN
RESPONSE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE STATE WITH A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE ACCUMULATIONS OCCURING
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WIN PLACE WILL
REINFORCE A WEDGE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF VIRGA OR FLURRIES BEFORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EVENTUALLY ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS SNOW HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND ARE NOW ONLY AROUND 40
PERCENT ALONG I-72 TO TUSCOLA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS (70-90
PERCENT) SOUTH OF I-70. THE PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH IS 50-70
PERCENT FOR OUR SOUTHEAST SIX COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-70. FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTH OF I-70, TODAY AND TONIGHT IS SHAPING UP
TO BE CLOUDY AND COLD WITH ONLY SOME NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES.
ON WEDNESDAY, A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS WAVE AND IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS
RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF VIRGA OR FLURRIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
BITTERLY COLD THROUGH THE WEEK...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA IS RESULTING IN A VERY COLD AIR
MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DIP BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-72 AND SINGLE DIGITS TO THE SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES
RANGE FROM ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA TO NEARLY
25DEGF BELOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT AS COLD AS THEY DID THIS MORNING, BUT STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP TO AROUND -15DEGF IN THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHICH HAS
PROMPTED A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STARK AND KNOX COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND AND ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CURRENT BATCH OF -SN WILL AFFECT KSPI-KDEC-KCMI FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
PRIMARILY BE MVFR WITHIN THE AREA OF -SN, THOUGH PERIODIC DROPS
TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS PUSHES OUT, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH, PROBABILITIES OF MVFR ARE CURRENTLY LOW
OVER CENTRAL IL. NORTH WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT 08-14 KT.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ027-028.
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