300
FXUS63 KILX 190448
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1048 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS FAR NORTH AS I-72
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70
(20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE).
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-55, AND COULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO A HALF INCH.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MODERATE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT IN KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WORKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING HAS BROUGHT IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER
A GOOD PORTION OF THE COUNTRY'S MIDSECTION. SNOW IS ONGOING OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH LIGHT RADAR RETURNS JUST NOW STARTING TO
APPROACH OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS COUNTIES WITH SURFACE
OBSERVING EQUIPMENT REPORTING SNOW IN MOUNT VERNON AND FAIRFIELD.
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF HEAVY SNOW WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF HERE,
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS COULD SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLURRIES MAY BE OBSERVED AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-72 CORRIDOR THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR NORTH
OF THERE SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 9 PM
READINGS RANGING 5 DEGREES IN OUR NORTHWEST TO 15 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
"WARMER" THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 0
AND +10 DEGREES. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS COULD SEND WIND CHILLS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WHERE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AS
LOW 15 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
NMA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE, SPREADING PRECIPITATION SLOWLY INTO EASTERN MO
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCLUDING SOUTHERN IL TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE LIKELY SOUTH OF I-70 (UP TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE),
ALTHOUGH FLURRIES COULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS I-72/DANVILLE.
DESPITE EARLIER TRENDS FOR THE PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTHWARD, ANY TRENDS HAVE ENDED FROM THE 00Z TO
12Z MODEL RUNS. GIVEN CURRENT PRECIPITATION BLEND OF UNDER A TENTH
INCH IN SOUTHERN CLAY, RICHLAND, AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH NORTHERN EXTENT, AND SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
NEAR 20, EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH IN CLAY, RICHLAND, AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
NORTH OF I-70. STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO IN GALESBURG TO
AROUND 10 SOUTH OF I-70. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE WIND CHILLS AROUND
-15 IN KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES BY MORNING, WHERE A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES, WHILE WIND CHILLS REACH JUST BELOW ZERO SOUTH
OF I-70.
A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB SETTLING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IL BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH DEEP LIFT FOR SATURATION WELL INTO
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TEMPERATURES, PROMOTING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
HALF INCH OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY FROM I-55 EASTWARD. HIGHS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 10 AT GALESBURG AND PEORIA TO 20 SOUTH OF I-70.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING A VERY COLD AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
IL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE FOR LOWS RANGING
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO WEST OF I-55 TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS EAST.
WIND CHILLS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO, AND WE COULD
NEED ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
AS THE PLAINS HIGH MIGRATES ACROSS ILLINOIS FRIDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
ONE MORE VERY COLD MORNING FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WIND,
FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE AIM AT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING
LOWERING CEILINGS AND A CHANCE (30%) FOR LIGHT SNOW AT MOST
AIRPORTS. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW PIVOTS OVERHEAD.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ027-028.
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