550
FXUS63 KILX 192031
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
231 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL
EAST OF I-55.
- THE STRETCH OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH FREQUENT SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS WILL EXTEND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA ARE CONCERNS WITH PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS. A WARM-UP WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- AFTER TODAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (30 TO 40 PERCENT)
COMES NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SE MN
INTO CENTRAL MO CONTINUES TO APPROACH CENTRAL IL FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY SCATTERED OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE, AND WE SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE
BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS LIFT INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND IT MOVES
INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH,
BUT A DUSTING OF A FEW TENTHS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF MODEL QPF, MAINLY EAST OF I-55. ONCE THIS FEATURE
MOVES EAST LATE TONIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTING TOWARD
CENTRAL IL. THIS WILL KEEP A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPACTING
CENTRAL IL, WITH CLEARING SKIES ASSISTING IN LOWERING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO WEST OF I-55 TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE EAST. TEN MPH NW
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DIPPING AS LOW AS -20 WEST OF THE
IL RIVER TO NEAR -10 AT THE IN STATE LINE. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS IL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
DECREASING WIND AND CLOUD COVER. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AFTER ANOTHER COLD DAY AND NIGHT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 20 AND LOWS APPROACHING ZERO AGAIN. FRIDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE 20S, AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK,
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BEGINNING TO BRING A THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED -SHSN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-55. MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF I-55. LATEST MODELS FEATURE
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY IN HOW FAST CLOUD COVER CLEARS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z. WINDS NW 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>044-047>056-061>063-066>068-
071>073.
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