742
FXUS63 KILX 202321
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
521 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AN UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK LOOKING TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
COUPLE WAVES BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES (20-40%) BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
DAY SNOW-FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA, ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCU. A
SNOWPACK IS IN PLACE ROUGHLY NEAR/SOUTH OF I-72 AND ALSO NORTH OF
A MACOMB TO PEORIA LINE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS, WITH VALUES IN THE LOW 20S WHERE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS IN PLACE. ZOOMING OUT SOME, AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE LOCALLY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ONE MORE NIGHT OF
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN 0 AND +5 DEGREES, THOUGH SOME SUBZERO VALUES ARE LIKELY IN
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. DESPITE
THE COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS, LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVENT WIND CHILLS
FROM STRAYING TOO FAR FROM THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW MERIDIONAL
FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY'S MIDSECTION. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES A LITTLE WAVIER BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK, WITH RIDGING
ENCROACHING THE MIDWEST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB AS
A RESULT, WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS THEN
EXCEEDING THEM SUNDAY ONWARD. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST AND SHOULD TOP OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY (NORMALS = LOW TO MID 40S).
A FEW UPPER WAVES WILL WORK THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND, BUT DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. OUR NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A FEW
STRONGER UPPER WAVES TAKE AIM AT THE AREA. THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. MILD TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH A MIX WITH SOME SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON THE
BACKSIDE AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY INTO BEGINNING OF MARCH
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL (3050% CHANCE) THOUGH THE MONTHLY
OUTLOOK FOR MARCH IS MORE NEUTRAL.
NMA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 8KTS OR LESS.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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