230
FXUS63 KILX 211715
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1115 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AN UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A
COUPLE WAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BETTER
CHANCE (40-50%) OF RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE 09Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS STRONG 1040-1042 MB CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO INTO SW IL WITH ST
LOUIS HAVING PRESSURE OF 1041.4 MB. CLEAR SKIES AND WEST TO NW
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH PREVAILED OVER CWA ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS
RANGING FROM 4-12F (DOWN TO 3F AT GALESBURG). WIND CHILLS
AVERAGED 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW OVER CWA, WITH GALESBURG HAVING THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL OF 10 BELOW. LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
(MVFR BASES) WAS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN IN FROM CRAWFORDSVILLE IN
EAST AND DRIFTING SE AWAY FROM IL. HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER OZARKS OF SW AND SOUTHERN MO.
THE CAMS SLOWLY WEAKEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO 1036 MB AS
IT DRIFTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z/6 PM, SHIFTING
WNW WINDS SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 10
MPH MUCH OF TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY DAWN SATURDAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES FROM CO
TOWARD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVER
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ONE MORE COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 10-15F (UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES.
SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKS INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SAT AFTERNOON
WHILE SW WINDS INCREASE OVER CENTRAL IL TO BREEZIER LEVELS BY SAT
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO DECREASE
OVER SOUTHERN CWA/SE IL DURING SAT MORNING. HIGHS SAT REACH MID TO
UPPER 30S, AND WILL BE A FULL WEEK FROM TEMPERATURES WERE LAST
ABOVE FREEZING IN CENTRAL IL. CLOUDS INCREASE BY OVERNIGHT SAT
NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF SAT
NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST IL. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. CLOUDS DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUE SW WINDS BRINGING MILDER
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
IL IS IN A WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING EARLY AND MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MORE OF A PACIFIC AIR MASS OVER THE AREA GIVING
TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S FROM SPRINGFIELD
WEST/SW WITH BREEZY SW WINDS. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
PASSING BY NORTH OF CENTRAL IL OVER WI/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY MON
NIGHT, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER IL. BEST CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN TO BE NORTH OF CENTRAL IL, THOUGH WE HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS A CANTON TO LINCOLN TO PARIS LINE MON
EVENING. LOWS MON NIGHT ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE ALL RAIN IF IT OCCURRED. SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (MILDEST IN SOUTHEAST IL) WITH WNW
WINDS. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND WE HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE TUE NIGHT NW OF PEORIA.
A STORM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TO TRACK INTO
IOWA BY WED MORNING AND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SE WI AND NW IN BY
SUNSET WED AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST INTO IL. THIS WILL BRING
OUR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AND RAIN IS
FAVORED P-TYPE AGAIN. GULF MOISTURE IS CUTOFF FROM THIS SYSTEM TO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WPC HAS QPF
LESS THAN A TENTH INCH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH IN SOUTHEAST IL. BREEZY SW WINDS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WED BRINGS MILD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AGAIN. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN US THU TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
(POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW) ALONG WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S. THE FORECAST MODELS SHIFT THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF TOWARD THE ATLANTIC STATES BY FRI MORNING WITH IL IN A NW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY NEXT FRIDAY COULD BRING NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN
INTO IL FRI NIGHT AND SAT (MAR 1). HIGHS 45-50F NEXT FRIDAY TO
COOL SOME THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB
28-MAR 6 HAS IS TRENDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN EASTERN IL WITH GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND HAVING
50-60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL,
GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS BUT INCREASING TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS, RESULTING IN SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 10KFT AT THE I-72 TERMINALS.
ERWIN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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