993
FXUS63 KILX 230232
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
832 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EVERY FEW DAYS, RAIN CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AROUND A 40% CHANCE,
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 832 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE 10KTS OF LESS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S AND
BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS BEING AROUND 20 DEGREES...THINK A
FORECAST OF LOW 20S STILL LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS
EVENING.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
LONG-AWAITED WARMUP HAS BEGUN AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE MID
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF NEARLY BARE GROUND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF I-70, AND THIS REGION WILL BE THE
MILDER AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, COOP REPORTS AND NOHRSC
ANALYSIS INDICATES SNOW DEPTHS IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ARE ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO, SO THIS WILL ERODE NICELY THIS WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES STILL GET WELL INTO THE 40S.
WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK, HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE COMMON, CLOSE TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FROM NBM GUIDANCE. A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY ACTIVE DURING
THE PERIOD. WHILE A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, IT WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED, AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20-30%. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE, BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE (EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES SHOW
CHANCES OF MORE THAN 0.10 INCH OF RAIN ARE ONLY AROUND 30-40%).
GEELHART
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. CIRRUS
IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA, BUT AMOUNT LOOKS VERY
LIMITED. WILL START PIA AND BMI WITH FEW AND THEN INCREASE TO SCT
THIS EVENING. SPI, DEC, AND CMI WILL START AS CLEAR AND THEN FEW
THIS EVENING. ALL SITES WILL SEE SCATTERED CIRRUS TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ONE MORE HOUR WITH
GUSTS OF 20-22KTS, BUT THEN DECREASE BY 01Z. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS OF 10-13KTS. WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWEST.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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