605
FXUS63 KILX 271535
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1035 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING
NEAR 80 DEGREES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 40 MPH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEAR TO BE IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A FEW UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE FOR SHORT-TERM POPS THIS MORNING TO
BETTER CAPTURE A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT IN THE CENTRAL IL VICINITY. AS OF 15Z THE SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG EXTENDS FROM NW MISSOURI
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL, BUT IT APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY MINIMALLY
SPREAD EASTWARD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. SO FAR, LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ABSENT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SO CURRENT FORECAST THAT
SPREADS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA STARTING 4 PM LOOKS GOOD.
SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY LOOK ON TRACK,
ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TODAY, ALTHOUGH WITH A GENERALLY DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD.
37
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
STRETCHED AS FAR WEST AS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. FURTHER WEST, A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST US. A PACIFIC
LOW WILL WORK TO FLATTEN AND PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER ILLINOIS AND OPENING
THE DOOR FOR SEVERAL IMPULSES TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND.
RADAR MOSAIC AS OF 3 AM SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG A STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR, WHICH
WAS OBSERVED ON OUR KILX 00Z SOUNDING. DEWPOINTS CLIMB BY LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT NEARS CLOSER, BRINGING SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TO THOSE SOUTH OF I-74 THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SHOWN BY CAMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AN UPTICK AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS AS THE WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO WHEN GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM AFTER 9 PM THEN SHIFT NORTH
OF HERE SOMETIME AFTER 2 AM AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING
WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY COMING TO AN
END. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. THE 27.00Z HREF IS ADVERTISING ANYWHERE FROM A
50-80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40 MPH NEAR/EAST OF I-55,
WHICH WOULD COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
80 DEGREES.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL
UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FIRST LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. THE MORE
IMPACTFUL PERIOD WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY
MARGINAL AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE,
WITH SUNDAY HOLDING A HIGHER THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WHERE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG PAIRED
WITH AT LEAST 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH
OF I-72 OR EVEN MORE SO SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND MACHINE LEARNING
TOOLS ARE SHOWING THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS.
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY PUSHES EAST OF HERE BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK, THOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY. SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED BY MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO START THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. MACHINE LEARNING TOOLS ARE STILL SHOWING THIS TIMEFRAME AS
ANOTHER TARGET FOR SEVERE STORMS.
NMA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST LIES AHEAD WITH SEVERAL PERIODS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO
BE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA SPREADS EAST. ANOTHER PERIOD COMES
LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA, BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW WITH THIS ROUND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS EVENING, THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page