065
FXUS63 KILX 280111
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
811 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
WARMING TO ALMOST 80 DEGREES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER
40 MPH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEAR TO BE IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
AS OF 800 PM THIS EVENING, A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEAR
QUINCY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEAR LITCHFIELD TO FLORA. THIS HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS SO FAR THIS
EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN KS WILL DRIVE
ADDITIONAL STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FURTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS A BROAD
CORRIDOR OF WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE. LATEST RAP
SUGGESTS WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND
ROOTED AROUND 800MB) IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAINLY WEST OF I-57, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD
OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH IN
DIAMETER.
DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WARM FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NW INTO SE MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, AND APPEARS
TIMED TO REACH NORTHEAST IL BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER. TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO FOCUS ON LATE
EVENING TO A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH, PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING,
PERHAPS LINGERING INTO MID MORNING NORTH OF I-74.
DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO REACH AS HIGH AS 4000-5000
FEET BY MID AFTERNOON, WHERE MOMENTUM AROUND 40 KTS SHOULD BE
PRESENT. THEREFORE, HIGH-END GUST POTENTIAL COULD EXCEED 45 MPH,
BUT MEAN LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO 40 MPH, CLOSE BUT JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY, WITH THE LOW CENTER REACHING ILLINOIS, OR PERHAPS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE APPEARS HEADED TOWARD
1000-2000 J/KG, ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OR LOCALLY STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TARGETING MORE THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ILLINOIS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A 15 PERCENT RISK AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-72 SUNDAY. TIMING LOOKS HEADED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW LOOKS HEADED TOWARD ILLINOIS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UPWARD TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEN WE
COULD SEE LOWS DIPPING TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, OR PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE GROWING SEASON IS STARTING
TO DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL, THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANY HARD
FREEZES COULD NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST IL.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEAR UIN SOUTHEAST TO MVN EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT SERVING AS THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
VEER TO SOUTHERLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL SET UP OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY
MORNING AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY, TOPPING OUT
IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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