237
FXUS63 KILX 280502
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1202 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
WARMING TO ALMOST 80 DEGREES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER
40 MPH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEAR TO BE IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
AS OF 800 PM THIS EVENING, A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEAR
QUINCY EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEAR LITCHFIELD TO FLORA. THIS HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS SO FAR THIS
EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN KS WILL DRIVE
ADDITIONAL STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FURTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS A BROAD
CORRIDOR OF WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE. LATEST RAP
SUGGESTS WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND
ROOTED AROUND 800MB) IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAINLY WEST OF I-57, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD
OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH IN
DIAMETER.
DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WARM FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NW INTO SE MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, AND APPEARS
TIMED TO REACH NORTHEAST IL BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER. TIMING FOR THIS LOOKS TO FOCUS ON LATE
EVENING TO A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH, PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING,
PERHAPS LINGERING INTO MID MORNING NORTH OF I-74.
DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO REACH AS HIGH AS 4000-5000
FEET BY MID AFTERNOON, WHERE MOMENTUM AROUND 40 KTS SHOULD BE
PRESENT. THEREFORE, HIGH-END GUST POTENTIAL COULD EXCEED 45 MPH,
BUT MEAN LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO 40 MPH, CLOSE BUT JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY, WITH THE LOW CENTER REACHING ILLINOIS, OR PERHAPS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE APPEARS HEADED TOWARD
1000-2000 J/KG, ALONG WITH 40-50 KTS OR LOCALLY STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TARGETING MORE THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ILLINOIS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A 15 PERCENT RISK AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-72 SUNDAY. TIMING LOOKS HEADED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW LOOKS HEADED TOWARD ILLINOIS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UPWARD TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND, THEN 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEN WE
COULD SEE LOWS DIPPING TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, OR PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE GROWING SEASON IS STARTING
TO DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST IL, THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANY HARD
FREEZES COULD NEED A FREEZE WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST IL.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW, SO ONLY
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA. AFTER THIS PUSHES OUT, THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 25 KT AFTER SUNSET.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063.
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