192
FXUS63 KILX 281038
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
538 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 35-40MPH AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SOARING
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF A
GALESBURG...TO LINCOLN...TO MARION LINE. WHILE THIS MAIN BAND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY DAWN, A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR UNTIL THE BOUNDARY DEPARTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT, AM EXPECTING WINDY, DRY, AND VERY
WARM WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. GIVEN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PRESENCE OF A 45-50KT 850MB JET, WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE ANTICIPATED. THE 00Z HRRR
SHOWS GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 35-40MPH RANGE, WHILE THE HREF
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUSTS ARE ALSO AROUND 40MPH. THE 00Z NBM INDICATES
A 30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 35MPH, BUT ONLY A 10-15%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 45MPH. AS A RESULT, WILL FORECAST GUSTS OF
AROUND 40MPH AND WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. THANKS TO THE
STRONG S/SW WINDS AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARD
DAWN. GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT
WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 30MPH ALONG THE I-57 CORRIDOR. CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE DRY
THIS EVENING: HOWEVER, MODELS ARE INDICATING A BAND OF SHOWERS
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE OZARKS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS, IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED EAST OF I-55 WHERE POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. FURTHER WEST, ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS, HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
INTERACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO
TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z MAR 28 MODELS ARE
IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM NEAR
KANSAS CITY SUNDAY MORNING TO LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO 60-65F AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, THE NAM IS SHOWING SBCAPES REACHING
1500-2000J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-60KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
MARKEDLY...ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ILLINOIS RIVER AROUND MIDDAY, THEN TRACK E/NE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINE: HOWEVER,
EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS IS STILL UNKNOWN. GIVEN
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND KINEMATICS, ALL SEVERE MODES WILL BE IN
PLAY...INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION AS THE CAMS
BEGIN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MESOSCALE DETAILS AND TIMING.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY EVENING, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
WILL COME TO AN END AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE. AFTER
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, READINGS WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND WINDS DECREASE, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER
THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AND THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS
MORNING AS DEEP-LAYER MIXING COMMENCES. BASED ON A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FROM THE HRRR/RAP, IT APPEARS GUSTS WILL EXCEED 25KT BY
14Z...THEN WILL PEAK AT OR ABOVE 35KT FROM 16Z THROUGH 22Z.
GUSTINESS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SUSTAINED WINDS
DECREASE TO 10-15KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AT AROUND 12,000FT WILL BREAK UP AND SHIFT NORTHWARD BY MID-
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
TAF PERIOD.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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