071
FXUS63 KILX 282033
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
333 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS THIS
EVENING OF UP TO 45 MPH. WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW,
BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE LOWER, ONLY REACHING INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH
RANGE.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
- A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVERYWHERE EAST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN HAS SETUP ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
US. THIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHORT IN THIS
FLOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN US TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW, BUT INSTABILITY AND OTHER STORM PARAMETERS WILL NOT
BE QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. PLUS SOME STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SAT EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON,
ONLY REACHING INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS,
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.
AUTEN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE STRONGER, MAIN WAVE WILL THEN LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PUSH
INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. LINGERING PRECIP IN THE MORNING COULD
WRECK SOME OF THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST, BUT NEWER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD RECOVER QUICKLY SUN...LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALLOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS, WHICH WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND PRIMED FOR WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
SUN AFTERNOON. NEWER RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND COULD HAVE IT NEAR THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY 18Z. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, SO DO NOT WANT
TO GET TOO DETAILED IN THE TIMING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, ALL
PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON
SUNDAY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER
PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EAST, BUT SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA
MID WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA. THOUGH SOME MODELS BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK, OTHER MODELS CONTINUE SOME POPS IN THE AREA FOR THUR
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL START WARM, BUT AFTER THE STRONG SYSTEM ON SUNDAY,
TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THAT, TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AUTEN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THE REST OF THE DAY,
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH THE SHOWERS. AT FIRST, MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH SHOWERS, BUT THEN CIGS BELOW 3KFT WILL
BECOME PREDOMINATE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ALL SITES REACHING
35-40KTS. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN LOWER TOMORROW WITH WIND DIRECTION BEING MORE
SOUTHERLY.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ029>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page