075
FXUS63 KILX 290500
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1200 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE
LOWER, ONLY REACHING INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME.
- A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVERYWHERE EAST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 828 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BOTH ADVISORIES WERE ENDED A BIT EARLY. WIND GUSTS OVERACHIEVED
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 50-60 MPH OVER A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WHICH RESULTED IN AREAS OF NEAR-ZERO
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST. ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPED THE WIND GUSTS, THOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40-45
MPH CONTINUED FURTHER NORTH TOWARD PEORIA/BLOOMINGTON A BIT
LONGER. CURRENTLY, GUSTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
IN OTHER FORECAST ASPECTS, SKY TRENDS WERE UPDATED TO INCREASE
CLOUDS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR IN THE SHORTER TERM. RAIN TIMING WAS
ALSO ADJUSTED A BIT ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70.
GEELHART
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SHORT FUSED BLOWING DUST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL RURAL AREAS HAVE SEEN
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST, ESPECIALLY WHERE RECENT
FARMING ACTIVITY HAS TAKEN PLACE. I-72 EAST OF JACKSONVILLE WAS
CLOSED EARLIER BUT IS NOW REOPENED. WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE STARTING TO COME DOWN A BIT
AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE DUSTY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AS WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER EARLY THIS
EVENING.
GEELHART
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN HAS SETUP ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
US. THIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHORT IN THIS
FLOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN US TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW, BUT INSTABILITY AND OTHER STORM PARAMETERS WILL NOT
BE QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. PLUS SOME STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SAT EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER THAN THIS AFTERNOON,
ONLY REACHING INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS,
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.
AUTEN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE STRONGER, MAIN WAVE WILL THEN LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PUSH
INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. LINGERING PRECIP IN THE MORNING COULD
WRECK SOME OF THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST, BUT NEWER MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD RECOVER QUICKLY SUN...LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALLOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS, WHICH WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND PRIMED FOR WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
SUN AFTERNOON. NEWER RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND COULD HAVE IT NEAR THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY 18Z. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, SO DO NOT WANT
TO GET TOO DETAILED IN THE TIMING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, ALL
PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON
SUNDAY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER
PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EAST, BUT SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE
AREA MID WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA. THOUGH SOME MODELS BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK, OTHER MODELS CONTINUE SOME POPS IN THE AREA FOR THUR
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL START WARM, BUT AFTER THE STRONG SYSTEM ON SUNDAY,
TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING FOR SUN NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THAT, TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AUTEN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA. PROBABILITIES OF IFR
CEILINGS INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY FOR
TERMINALS NEAR AND EAST OF I-55. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS, UP TO 25 KT.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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