526
FXUS63 KILX 301540
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE FIRST WILL
MAINLY IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE CELLS.
- THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR TOWARD MIDDAY...THEN WILL QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO INDIANA BY EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, VERY LARGE
HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH THESE CELLS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY: HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT EXACT DETAILS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SOME WEAKER CELLS HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN SHOW WILL COME JUST AFTER NOON TODAY. THE
CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVING THE LINE OF STORMS EXITING AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING VERY LARGE HAIL (>2 INCHES),
DAMAGING WINDS (60-80MPH), AND ISOLATED, POTENTIALLY STRONG
TORNADOES. THE RISK LOOKS TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR. PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY!
COPPLE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ON 0830Z/330AM RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON RADAR TIMING TOOLS AND THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT, THE STORMS WILL REACH THE FAR SW KILX CWA AROUND
WINCHESTER AND JACKSONVILLE BETWEEN 7AM AND 8AM, THEN WILL PUSH
NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR AFTER 10AM. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION,
MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE AND
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY, THINK THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
ALONG/WEST OF I-55 THIS MORNING.
ONCE THE MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS, A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND
OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE 00Z CAMS STILL OFFER VARYING
SOLUTIONS AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION,
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO POINT TO LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 12PM AND 2PM. THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED...WITH SBCAPES OF
1500-2000J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50-55KT. GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY,
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF 10,000FT OR
LESS...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE CELLS AS
THEY FIRST BEGIN TO DEVELOP. AS SUCH, SPC IS INDICATING A GREATER
THAN 10% CHANCE FOR HAIL LARGER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER EVERYWHERE
EAST OF I-55. WITH A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION, SPEED SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN IMPRESSIVE 0-3KM VGP VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.5. GIVEN
THE HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR, HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER (STP) VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 2 ALONG/SOUTH OF A SHELBYVILLE
TO DANVILLE LINE. AM THEREFORE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW POTENTIALLY
STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL WITH THE BOUNDARY, THINK THE CELLS WILL
QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A QLCS...WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND
GUST AND TORNADO RISK AS THE LINE RACES EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-57
CORRIDOR AND INTO INDIANA BY EARLY EVENING.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL COME TO
AN END AND A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TODAY, READINGS WILL
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WINDS DIMINISH, RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AFTER THAT, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE YET ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO PROPERLY ASSESS ANY ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK, SPC IS
HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH A 15% PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE...WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70.
ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES, THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL WITH THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AS A SERIES OF WAVES INTERACTS
WITH THE BOUNDARY, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE A WET AND
UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT BOTH KSPI AND KDEC EARLY THIS
MORNING: HOWEVER, MVFR PERSISTS AT THE I-74 TERMINALS. DESPITE
SOUTHERLY FLOW, LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEPART...SO HAVE
OPTED TO MAINTAIN MVFR AT 12Z ALONG I-74.
A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS MISSOURI WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CAMS ARE EXHIBITING THEIR
TYPICAL SLOW BIAS, AS RADAR TIMING TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING THE LINE
WILL ARRIVE ABOUT 1 HOUR SOONER THAN THE HRRR IS FORECASTING.
HAVE THEREFORE ADDED PREDOMINANT THUNDER TO KSPI/KPIA BY
13Z...THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST TO KDEC/KBMI BY 14Z. ONCE THIS
INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION PASSES, A LULL IN STORM CHANCES WILL
EXIST UNTIL ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRE EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT OF THE WESTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDER AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF 45KT AT BOTH KDEC
AND KCMI BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.
ONCE THE AFTERNOON STORMS PASS, WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY...THEN
EVENTUALLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT KPIA BY 22Z...THEN FURTHER
EAST TO KCMI BY AROUND 03Z.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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