230
FXUS63 KILX 301825
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
125 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 7PM THIS
EVENING.
- OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRING THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. OUTLOOKS FROM THE SPC HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR TUESDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY AND AN
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR SOUTHEASTERN IL.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR TORNADOES SPINNING UP
WITHIN THE LINE.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MO HAS PRODUCED AN MCV
THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR SPI AS OF
1230PM. IN ADDITION, SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS IN THIS VICINITY
APPROACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS WITH
A BULLSEYE OF 100-150 J/KG 0-3 KM MLCAPE INDICATING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING OF ANY MESOS. INSTABILITY IS
COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KT.
STORMS HAVE QUICKLY CONGEALED AND BECOME LINEAR SO MAIN FOCUS IN
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL MESOVORTEX GENESIS. 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40KT
ORIENTED OUT OF THE WSW WILL REQUIRE LINE NORMAL COMPONENT OF ANY
BOWING SEGMENTS POINTING ANYWHERE BETWEEN EAST TO NORTH IN ORDER
TO MEET THE CRITERIA FOR QLCS 3-INGREDIENTS.
DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE LINE OF STORMS WE HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKING HAVE FIRED AND ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IL THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE
EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z -- EXITING OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN IL. ALL HAZARDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EVENT
AND A TORNADO WATCH (#70) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
MONDAY WILL BE A RELAXED DAY COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND 30 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE 70S.
AFTER TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER, WE ARE WATCHING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS US
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) TUESDAY (DAY 3) AND AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) WEDNESDAY (DAY 4). THINKING IS THE
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY IS FOR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS THERE LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BE TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE OVERNIGHT ROUND (ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT)
CURRENTLY DOESN'T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE DAYTIME CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE FIRING ALONG THE PASSING COLD
FRONT AND LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
THE STORMS, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WINDY ONE (GUSTS AROUND 30-
35 KNOTS).
OVERALL THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD AND START TO
APRIL, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN IL. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN IL OVER THE WEEKEND,
INCLUDING A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A LINE OF STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING DEC AND CMI INTO THE EVENING. PIA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TONIGHT TO
MVFR ~1-2KFT. BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW, CEILINGS WILL RISE BACK TO
VFR FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 30-35KT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
COPPLE
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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