997
FXUS63 KILX 301910
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
210 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 7PM THIS
EVENING.
- OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRING THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. OUTLOOKS FROM THE SPC HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR TUESDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY AND AN
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR SOUTHEASTERN IL.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
A LINE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY EXIT INTO INDIANA OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER ST LOUIS WILL MOVE
INTO COUNTIES NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM WITH AN
ONGOING SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON, A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY PUSH INTO INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MODERATE
INSTABILITY AROUND 1300-1500 J/KG LOCATED AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH
MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT. THE LINE OF STORMS
BEGINS TO ARC SOUTHWEST NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND HAVE GROWING
CONCERNS THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
STORMS WILL HAVE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION TO INTERACT WITH THE NEXT
CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY LIFTING ENE ACROSS THE ST LOUIS METRO
AREA. THIS NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE ENTERING EFFINGHAM/CLAY
COUNTIES BETWEEN 3-4 PM AND COULD HAVE A LOCALIZED ENHANCED
SEVERE/TOR THREAT IF STORMS LATCH ONTO THE BOUNDARY WITH
ORIENTATIONS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE PROLONGED RESIDENCE TIME RIDING
THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT AREA TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AS
THE INITIAL LINE OF SEVERE STORMS PUSHES INTO INDIANA OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE LINE OF STORMS WE HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKING HAVE FIRED AND ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IL THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE
EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z -- EXITING OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN IL. ALL HAZARDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EVENT
AND A TORNADO WATCH (#70) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
MONDAY WILL BE A RELAXED DAY COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND 30 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY WEDNESDAY BACK INTO
THE 70S.
AFTER TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER, WE ARE WATCHING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS US
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) TUESDAY (DAY 3) AND AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) WEDNESDAY (DAY 4). THINKING IS THE
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY IS FOR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS THERE LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BE TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE OVERNIGHT ROUND (ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT)
CURRENTLY DOESN'T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE DAYTIME CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE FIRING ALONG THE PASSING COLD
FRONT AND LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
THE STORMS, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WINDY ONE (GUSTS AROUND 30-
35 KNOTS).
OVERALL THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD AND START TO
APRIL, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN IL. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN IL OVER THE WEEKEND,
INCLUDING A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A LINE OF STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING DEC AND CMI INTO THE EVENING. PIA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TONIGHT TO
MVFR ~1-2KFT. BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW, CEILINGS WILL RISE BACK TO
VFR FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 30-35KT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
COPPLE
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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