042
FXUS63 KILX 312317
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
617 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION, WHERE A LOW PROBABILITY
(15% CHANCE) FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1PM WEDNESDAY TO 7AM SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
AFTER THE CHILLY DAY WE HAVE HAD TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND FOR THE WEEK. TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE BIG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
A GREATER FLOODING RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE INTERESTING.
TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY. SPC DOES HAVE US IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) TUESDAY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, NORTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z.
THESE STORMS MAY HAVE SOME HAIL (~1 INCH) AND NEAR 60MPH WINDS. MOST
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE OR SUB-SEVERE. THE MUCAPES
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND NO SBCAPE SUGGEST AN ELEVATED NATURE.
LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM POINT TOWARDS HAIL POTENTIAL. THE MAIN
EVENT COMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STORM MODE MAY BE MESSY WEDNESDAY. STARTING OUT, DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED BUT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, A LINE OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. DURING THIS TIME, SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG,
BULK SFC-500MB SHEAR OF 70-80KTS, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORT
AND ENHANCE THE SEVERE RISK. TIMING GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE 18Z TO 00Z
FOR THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE STILL. THE MODEL
WITH THE LATEST EVOLUTION SHOWS THE RISK FROM 21Z WEDS TO 06Z THURS.
SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR MOST OF ILLINOIS, WITH
ALL HAZARDS (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FEW TORNADOES,
INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE) POSSIBLE. NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FROM THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY. THERE
IS GOING TO BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA, MAINLY
FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-70. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING LIKELY AS THE
STALLED BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND. CURRENT QPF HAS 5-7 INCHES OF RAIN.
WPC HAS US IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAYS
3-5, WITH THE MODERATE RISK JUST BARELY SOUTH OF LAWRENCE COUNTY.
THE LREF SHOWS A 40-70% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 5 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENT. THE GEFS QPF IS SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY DECIDES TO STALL OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, THEN SET UP OUT OF THE ESE TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.
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