941
FXUS63 KILX 012047
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
347 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE WHERE A LOW
PROBABILITY (5-15% CHANCE) FOR HAIL EXISTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND
TORNADOES.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70...WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY STEADILY INCREASING TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG BY
SUNRISE, WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL TO ONE INCH
DIAMETER TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-72. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEAR
SURFACE STABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A THREAT OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE, EXCEPT PERHAPS WEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO PEORIA
LINE IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE WEST IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH AS IT ROLLS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IL FROM THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO RE-DEVELOP, AT
LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. EAST OF I-55 APPEARS
TO HAVE MORE CERTAINTY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH TORNADOES, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST, CAMS ARE NOT AS UNANIMOUS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED CAPE.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK DESIGNATED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES CENTERED SOUTH
OF I-72, AND A THREAT FOR 2+ INCH HAIL, AND 75+ MPH WIND GUSTS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DON'T APPEAR TO
BE IMPRESSIVE, GENERALLY A HALF INCH, CAMS SUGGEST A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED 2 INCH CORRIDORS IN STRONGER STORMS AND WPC HAS A MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NEAR I-55 EASTWARD.
TIMING OF RE-DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT EARLIEST APPEARS TO
BE 1-2 PM AND LATEST 4-6 PM, WITH SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION,
PERHAPS WELL WEST OF THE IL RIVER, OR PERHAPS WELL EAST OF I-55.
AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY, STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL DEVELOP INTO
CENTRAL IL AND MIXING ALOFT WILL DEEPEN AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN, TO
THE SURFACE, AND IT APPEARS 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS WILL DEVELOP. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AREAS EAST OF I-55 SHOULD DEVELOP STRONG WINDS
BY MID MORNING AND HAVE THE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY, BUT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL AFTER NOON FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...NOON TO 7 PM
WEST OF I-55, AND 8 AM TO MIDNIGHT EAST OF I-55.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL OUT NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER, WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BRINGING A THREAT OF EXTREME RAINFALL IF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FALLS IN THE SAME GENERAL TRACKS. AT THIS POINT, RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ON SOUTHEAST IL THURSDAY NIGHT, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SOUTHEAST IL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM AROUND I-70
SOUTHWARD, WITH AN OUTLOOK FOR 6-7 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTH OF I-72, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT COOLER AIR LOOKS
TO ARRIVE FOLLOWING THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD, BRINGING A THREAT OF
SUB-FREEZING LOWS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND
06Z-10Z, THEN LOWERING CIGS AND SOME LOCALLY MUCH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
IN THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY 18Z, THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS AFTER 18Z. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN
SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 24-30 KTS WITH GUSTS 35-45
KTS BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 05Z AS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036-
037-040>042-047>051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ILZ038-043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page