648
FXUS63 KILX 210700
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
200 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, TUESDAY TO
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TOWARDS MIDWEEK. AT THIS
TIME, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW (LESS THAN 5%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXITING
OUT OF THE STATE NOW. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP BY THIS EVENING.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS, THIS WEEK WILL HAVE MUCH CALMER WINDS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SOME MORE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST STARTING TOMORROW, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE SEVERAL WAVES THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA,
FRIDAY'S ROUND LOOKS THE MOST ROBUST. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY,
DRAPING A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. QPF SHOWS 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES
FROM THIS SYSTEM. 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE SURFACE TO 500MB SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. THESE
STORMS HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE, BASED OFF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ON THE LONG-RANGE MODELS (GFS/EURO). THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT, SO THINGS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE WITH
TIMING, LOCATION, AND STRENGTH. WE SHALL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. HOWEVER THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
THE SHOWERS ARE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL SITES SHOULD BE DRY
BY 07Z. GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER 08Z AT
ALL SITES. THEY WILL RISE TO VFR (MOSTLY CLEAR) BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY.
COPPLE
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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