320
FXUS63 KILX 211720
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1220 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, TUESDAY TO
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TOWARDS MIDWEEK. AT THIS
TIME, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW (LESS THAN 5%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXITING
OUT OF THE STATE NOW. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP BY THIS EVENING.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS, THIS WEEK WILL HAVE MUCH CALMER WINDS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SOME MORE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST STARTING TOMORROW, BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE SEVERAL WAVES THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA,
FRIDAY'S ROUND LOOKS THE MOST ROBUST. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY,
DRAPING A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. QPF SHOWS 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES
FROM THIS SYSTEM. 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE SURFACE TO 500MB SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK. THESE
STORMS HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE, BASED OFF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ON THE LONG-RANGE MODELS (GFS/EURO). THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT, SO THINGS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE WITH
TIMING, LOCATION, AND STRENGTH. WE SHALL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. HOWEVER THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO RISE TOWARDS THE VFR THRESHOLD AS
DIURNAL MIXING DEEPENS. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS FURTHER OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THESE CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BREAK UP AND SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY ABATE WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOSE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND FICKLE, BUT TOWARDS SUNRISE/11Z THEY
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY, INCREASING AND VEERING
SLIGHTLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHEN GUSTS OVER 20 KT ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
BUMGARDNER
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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