045
FXUS63 KILX 220742
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
242 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.
- THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE OVER NORTHERN IL TODAY. HOW FAR SOUTH IT
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE STATE IS DEBATABLE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATE THUNDERSTORM TODAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40
KNOTS COULD SUPPORT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
MAIN RISKS BEING UP TO 60MPH WIND GUSTS AND 1 INCH HAIL. MOST
MODELS SHOW THE ISOLATED STORMS BEING NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE, BUT THE HRRR SHOWS THEM POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN TO
THE I-72 CORRIDOR. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS DRAPED
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-
20%) OF RAIN OVER KNOX AND FULTON COUNTIES. WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BUILD MOMENTUM FROM THE GULF, ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S.
THE NEXT ROBUST WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON GOING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. QPF WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL / SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IS 0.5-0.75
INCHES. CWA WIDE, THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE SHOWING A 5% CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-70. WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT, BUT WE QUICKLY
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS NEAR KPIA/KBMI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THEY REACH
AS FAR SOUTH AS KPIA/KBMI. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A THUNDER MENTION AT THIS POINT.
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page