480
FXUS63 KILX 230744
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
- TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING, THE NEXT ROBUST
WAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL (70-90%
CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THIS MORNING THERE ARE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SO FAR THEY ARE BEHAVING AND SHOULD STAY SUB-
SEVERE. AFTER THESE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AROUND SUNRISE,
THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUITE DRY AND WARM. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, WHICH IS A NICE CHANGE OF PACE FROM THE BREEZIER SPRING DAYS
WE HAVE HAD.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING, THE NEXT ROBUST
SYNOPTIC WAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL (70-90%
CHANCE). QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS 0.25-0.5 INCHES. A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND PRETTY WEAK (~20 KNOTS) 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
SUPPORTS THESE STORMS BEING BASICALLY UNEVENTFUL. MACHINE LEARNING
MODELS ARE SHOWING A 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY SOUTH OF I-
70.
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WETTER WEATHER.
SATURDAY WILL COOL BACK TO NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 60S, LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S). THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY, PULLING
IN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE 80S
FOR THE NEW WEEK.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD (MONDAY INTO TUESDAY), THE PATTERN
LOOKS TO GET ACTIVE AGAIN. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS WAVE WILL BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. IT IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SET UP AS IT GETS BETTER RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN THE
COMING DAYS.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
WEST-EAST BAND OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD, AND THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS WOULD
REACH KPIA IN A FEW HOURS. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THE
MOMENT AT THIS PROSPECT TO KEEP THE MENTION TO PROB30 FOR THUNDER,
AND WILL EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ANY AMENDMENTS
TO HIT IT HARDER.
IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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