110
FXUS63 KILX 241059
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
559 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY AND MID TO
UPPER 70S FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (15%
WITHIN 25 MILES) ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OVER THE REGION, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL (60-90% CHANCE). QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS 0.25-0.5 INCHES. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND PRETTY
WEAK (~20 KNOTS) 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT NEAR
ZERO. THE MORE PRONOUNCED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM 00Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-72. SOUTH OF I-72 OVERNIGHT WOULD BE MORE
OF AN ISOLATED NATURE. THE CAMS SHOW OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
SEEING THEIR MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL COOL BACK TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY,
INCREASING THE WARM AIR TRANSPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY MONDAY.
LOOKING AT THE NEW WEEK, THE PATTERN APPEARS TO GET ACTIVE AGAIN. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO, SHIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THIS WAVE IS OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSES CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN IL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING 1500-2500
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40-60 KNOTS OF SURFACE TO 500MB BULK SHEAR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. SPC HAS US OUTLOOKED
FOR A 15% SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR TUESDAY.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
12Z TAF WILL MAINLY BE VFR TODAY. THIS EVENING, PIA AND SPI HAVE
PROB30 FOR SHRA AND LOWERED CEILINGS. THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED IN THE WEST. AFTER 08Z, PIA AND BMI HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEC AND CMI SHOULD MISS OUT
ON THE RAIN THIS PERIOD, BUT CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.
COPPLE
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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