438
FXUS63 KILX 241747
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1247 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY AND MID TO
UPPER 70S FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (15%
WITHIN 25 MILES) ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OVER THE REGION, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL (60-90% CHANCE). QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS 0.25-0.5 INCHES. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND PRETTY
WEAK (~20 KNOTS) 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT NEAR
ZERO. THE MORE PRONOUNCED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM 00Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-72. SOUTH OF I-72 OVERNIGHT WOULD BE MORE
OF AN ISOLATED NATURE. THE CAMS SHOW OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
SEEING THEIR MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL COOL BACK TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY,
INCREASING THE WARM AIR TRANSPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY MONDAY.
LOOKING AT THE NEW WEEK, THE PATTERN APPEARS TO GET ACTIVE AGAIN. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO, SHIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THIS WAVE IS OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVERSES CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN IL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING 1500-2500
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 40-60 KNOTS OF SURFACE TO 500MB BULK SHEAR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. SPC HAS US OUTLOOKED
FOR A 15% SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR TUESDAY.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWER AND POTENTIALLY BECOME MVFR IN A FEW SPOTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
ONSET OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.
HAVE OPTED TO CARRY VCSH AFTER 10-12Z, BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL MATERIALIZE TOWARD MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH, HAVE INTRODUCED
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AT KPIA BY 14Z...AND SHOWERS/THUNDER FURTHER
EAST AFTER 16Z AT KBMI/KDEC/KCMI AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS DOWN TO
AROUND 3500FT, WHILE RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HINTS AT POCKETS OF MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW VFR CEILINGS FOR NOW UNTIL
TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. WINDS WILL BE S AT LESS THAN
10KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WILL VEER TO W/SW FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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