484
FXUS63 KILX 150513
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1213 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND LOWS.
- A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
THURSDAY AND INCREASED TO AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) ON
FRIDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS WEEKEND, THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS THIS HOUR SHOW SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO
PERCOLATE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE
TO EXPAND THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD, WITH MORE OF THE FOCUS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-55 MAINLY
IN THE 9 PM TO 2 AM TIME FRAME. SOME UPDATES TO THE POP'S WERE
MADE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS REMAINS WITH SOME ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
OTHER UPDATES WERE TO ADJUST SKY TRENDS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK, ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.
GEELHART
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
WE CONTINUE OUR FIRST TASTE OF SUMMER THIS WEEK. WE ARE LOOKING AT
POTENTIALLY WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND RECORD HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW (THURSDAY). LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 66-69
DEGREES AND THE RECORD IS 65-69 DEGREES FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 90S. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TOMORROW IS
91-93 DEGREES. DESPITE FRIDAY ALSO BEING QUITE TOASTY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S), WE SHOULDN'T SEE ANY RECORDS BEING BROKEN.
OVERNIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL, A
WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS, AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE TO DEVELOP.
SPC HAS THROWN A MARGINAL RISK IN FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TONIGHT FOR
SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. CAMS HAVE THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING AT 01-02Z THIS EVENING, AND
EXITING TO THE NORTH BY ABOUT 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW, ALONGSIDE THE RECORD WARMTH, DEWPOINTS WILL BE SOUPY TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE THAT WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA. TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, TDS WILL BE IN THE 70S. TO THE WEST, TDS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THESE LOWERED DEWPOINTS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY. USE CAUTION IF BURNING AND
AVOID IT IF YOU CAN. WE CONTINUE TO SEE VERY IMPRESSIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS THAT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW,
BUT THE CAPPING ISSUE REMAINS. THIS EVENT FOR TOMORROW EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE A "BOOM OR BUST" SCENARIO. IF WE CAN OVERCOME
THE RESIDUAL CAPPING, WE WILL SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS (POTENTIALLY
SUPERCELLS) THAT WILL HAVE AN ALL HAZARDS RISK (DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES). HOWEVER, IF WE NEVER BREAK THROUGH,
TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD BUST, WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK IN OUR AREA.
FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR US TO GET SEVERE WEATHER. THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY'S, JUST WITHOUT THE
RESIDUAL CAPPING PROBLEM. STORMS WON'T HAVE AN ISSUE TAPPING INTO
THE GREAT ENERGY IN PLACE. (~3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, 50-70 KNOTS OF 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR.) THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
THREAT WILL EXTEND BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFFECTING I-72 AND SOUTH, IT WILL ENTER THE AREA BY 20Z AND
EXIT BEFORE 06Z SATURDAY.
AFTER FRIDAY, WE RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50/60S.
DRY WEATHER WILL HANG OVER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY BRINGS
THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING ITS OWN CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL DIVE DEEPER INTO THE DETAILS AS
IT MOVES CLOSER IN TIME.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. LOW COVERAGE OF BKN MVFR CEILINGS ARE SHOWN BY
SEVERAL MODELS FROM 10-14Z, AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE DIURNAL CU WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY. A DISTURBANCE
WILL SPARK ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
PARTICULARLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-55. DUE TO LOW COVERAGE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP. IF A TERMINAL IS HIT BY A TSRA, BRIEF IFR AND DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. SSE WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS COMMON, VEERING SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 00-02Z.
25
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
LOCATION THU RECORD THU RECORD FRI RECORD
. HIGH WARM LOW HIGH
============= ========== ========== ==========
BLOOMINGTON 94/1894 70/1962 92/1900
CHAMPAIGN 90/2001 66/1962 92/2001
CHARLESTON 92/2001 69/2013 94/2001
DECATUR 94/1894 68/1968 92/2001
JACKSONVILLE 91/2013 68/1962 90/2001
LINCOLN 90/1987 65/2013 92/2001
OLNEY 91/2018 69/1962 91/2001
PEORIA 89/1911 67/1998 90/2001
SPRINGFIELD 91/1962 69/1962 93/2001
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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