378
FXUS63 KILX 160204
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
904 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 4 OF 5 (MODERATE) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF I-70, AND A LEVEL 3
(ENHANCED) RISK FURTHER NORTHWEST. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE IN
PLAY.
- TOMORROW, SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30% TO RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER, MAINLY NORTH OF I-72. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH
VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
SEVERE CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY EARLIER HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD TOWARD I-57 AND
DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY AS OF 02Z/9PM. ONE REMAINING CELL OVER
VERMILION COUNTY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND PUSH INTO INDIANA PRIOR
TO 10PM. THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR ALL LOCATIONS
ALONG/WEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO TAYLORVILLE LINE AND THE REST OF IT
MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 10PM IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
BARNES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS
SLATED TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL OFFER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL ACTIVE WEATHER, WHILE BEHIND IT THE PATTERN TURNS
BENIGN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS.
***** SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS EVENING *****
THE MOST IMMINENT FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PROSPECT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS REMAINS A CONDITIONAL
RISK AS A CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE REALIZATION
OF ABUNDANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. IF AND WHEN THAT CAP BREAKS,
THE HELLACIOUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER SPACE CHARACTERIZED BY
3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50 KT EBWD WILL PROVE AMPLE FOR
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS THE LONGEVITY OF
STORMS THAT DO FIRE. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE DRY
LINE (VS THE STRONGER FORCING WE WOULD EXPECT ALONG A TRUE COLD
FRONT) AND A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE SHEAR ORIENTED NORMAL TO THAT
BOUNDARY, WE'D EXPECT A DISCRETE STORM MODE WITH LARGE TO
SIGNIFICANT HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISK; ENTRAINMENT CAPE, OR
ECAPE (A PARAMETER CLOSELY TIED TO POTENTIAL HAIL SIZE), VALUES
FROM RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. PROLIFIC MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND
PWATS NEARING RECORD VALUES WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND HENCE STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM IN THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFTS FOR SEVERE WINDS AS WELL, WITH DCAPE VALUES ON THE
RAP'S MOST RECENT MESOANALYSIS BETWEEN 1300-1500 J/KG. WHILE LCLS
ARE HIGHER THAN IDEAL FOR TORNADOGENESIS, INCREASING THE
DIFFICULTY FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO CONNECT TO THUNDERSTORM
MESOCYCLONES, WE CERTAINLY DON'T WANT TO DOWNPLAY THAT THREAT
BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF THOSE
MESOCYCLONES. THANKFULLY, THE RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTION WILL
CONFINE THE RISK TO JUST A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, WITH STORMS
QUICKLY SAILING INTO THE HOOSIER STATE; AT THIS TIME, WE'RE MOST
CONCERNED ABOUT THE 6-10PM TIMEFRAME, THOUGH AGAIN IT'S NOT
ENTIRELY PLAIN WHEN THE CAP WILL VANISH.
***** SEVERE WEATHER RISK FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING *****
AFTER OUR GLANCING BLOW WITH SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING, ALL
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SET UP FOR TOMORROW. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SOAR INTO THE PRAIRIE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT PRECISELY HOW FAR NORTHWEST
MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT INCOMING DRY
LINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL DICTATE DESTABILIZATION AND HENCE
STORM INTENSITY ALONG THAT BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THAT MOISTURE
RETURN ITSELF WILL ALSO BE CONDITIONAL ON IF/WHERE STORMS FORM
THIS EVENING, HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY, AND
WHETHER CONVECTION INITIATES FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS A FEW OF THE CAMS ARE INDICATING. IN ANY CASE, EVEN
THE MORE BULLISH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY LOWER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT THAT COMES AT THE
EXPENSE OF A WEAKER CAP AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT.
ONCE AGAIN, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY TOMORROW, WITH
PERHAPS A HIGHER RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS GIVEN (1) SLIGHTLY LOWER LCLS AND (2) MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WITH THE ENCROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE CAMS COMPRISING THE 15.12Z
HREF SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON ROUGHLY THE I-55 CORRIDOR FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH
THE NAMNEST FIRING STORMS WEST OF THE IL RIVER AND THE ARW
IGNITING THOSE UPDRAFTS NEARER I-57. STORM MOTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA AFTER AROUND 8-9PM.
***** GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW ****
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, IT'LL BE SEASONABLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOUTH WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH, SPORADICALLY HIGHER ESPECIALLY NEAR/WEST
OF I-55 WHERE DEEPER MIXING AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL MATERIALIZE BEHIND A DRY LINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TOMORROW WILL BE EVEN WINDIER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
KISS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH). CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS TOO
LOW AT THIS POINT, WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MIXING TECHNIQUE
SUGGESTING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH OF MIXING,
AND ALSO VARIABILITY BETWEEN MODELS. IN GENERAL, TOP OF CHANNEL
WINDS ARE RUNNING AROUND 30-35 KT, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE DEEPER MIXING ALLOWS US TO TAP INTO THE 40-45+ KT
WINDS AROUND 850-900MB DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WHILE BEHIND IT THEY'LL BLOW FROM THE WEST. JUST
NOTICING THE 10-40% DEFICIT IN SOIL MOISTURE NORTH OF ROUGHLY I-72
AND OBSERVED 0.25 2-INCH SOIL MOISTURE (WFV) AT SPI, ONE WONDERS
WHETHER THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR BLOWING DUST,
ESPECIALLY (1) IF THE STRONGER WINDS COME TO FRUITION AND (2) IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY ONGOING AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES.
***** DRY AND COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND *****
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, GIVING US A
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A LOT REMAINS UNCLEAR ABOUT THAT SYSTEM, INCLUDING ITS
ARRIVAL TIME AND WARMTH/MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT, WHICH SUGGESTS
VAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING BOTH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
BUMGARDNER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
2330Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG A
KPIA TO KSPI LINE. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND TIMING TOOLS, HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THUNDER WILL PASS
JUST EAST OF KPIA/KSPI SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, THEN WILL IMPACT
KBMI/KDEC BY AROUND 01Z AND KCMI BY 02Z. HAVE INCLUDED WIND GUSTS
TO 45KT AND HAIL AS THE STORMS PASS. ONCE THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST
OF THE TAF SITES, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-72 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BASED ON 18Z HRRR OUTPUT, HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER
AT KSPI/KDEC/KCMI BETWEEN 20Z FRI AND 00Z SAT. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE S/SW WITH GUSTS OF 25-35KT EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
THE WINDS DECREASING TO 10-15KT BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. S/SW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY,
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING GUSTS OVER 30KT.
BARNES
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
BEHIND THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON, VARIOUS HIGH RES GUIDANCE, MOST
NOTABLY THE RAP/HRRR, ADVERTISE DEWPOINTS DROPPING SUFFICIENTLY TO
BRING RH VALUES INTO THE 20S MAINLY WEST OF I-55. COMBINING THIS
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH WILL INCREASE THE RISK
FOR ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR, SO WE'D RECOMMEND LIMITING (OR AT LEAST
USING EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH) ANY BURNING ACTIVITIES DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOMORROW, THE
RISK APPEARS TO BE EVEN HIGHER AS THE RESIDUAL DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES COMBINES WITH EVEN STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS (35-45 MPH) FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ON THIS SHIFT DUE TO MODEL
VARIABILITY, A RED FLAG WATCH/WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
BUMGARDNER
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
LOCATION THU RECORD THU RECORD FRI RECORD
. HIGH WARM LOW HIGH
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
LOCATION THU RECORD THU RECORD FRI RECORD
. HIGH WARM LOW HIGH
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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