215
FXUS63 KILX 161441
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
941 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE IL RIVER
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. THERE IS A LEVEL 3 OF 5
(ENHANCED) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF I-72, AND A LEVEL 4
OF 5 (MODERATE) RISK SOUTH OF I-70. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE IN
PLAY.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30% NORTH OF I-72 TO RESULT
IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
RISK FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH
VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG (981MB)
SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN, BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. AS THAT
UPPER LOW MEANDERS TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY, IT WILL PHASE
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS A DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A PORTION OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL, THOUGH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF STORMS
REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE RETURN WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NORTH OF I-72 THIS MORNING.
NONETHELESS, GIVING THE SEASONABLY STRONG FORCING AND WEAK
CAPPING, THE CAMS' DEPICTION OF INTENSE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS REMAINS ON TRACK; IN ADDITION, THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURLY ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ADVERTISE POCKETS OF HURRICANE FORCE
(74+ MPH) WIND GUSTS WHICH SEEMS LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
GIVEN ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR RESULTS
IN EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND STRONG NEGATIVE BOUYANCY IN
THUNDERSTORMS). WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR PEEPERS ON MODEL
TRENDS, AND ESPECIALLY THE SUITE OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
MESOANALYSIS DATA TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL GOING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS, THE TIMEFRAME OF GREATEST CONCERN REMAINS
2-9PM, WITH AREAS NEAR I-55 AND EAST AT THE HIGHEST RISK (THOUGH
AREAS AS FAR WEST AS THE IL RIVER COULD BE IMPACTED).
BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES AN ENHANCED TO MODERATE RISK RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF I-72 FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING, WITH
THE MODERATE RISK SOUTH OF I-70. THIS AREA HAS A 30-45% CHANCE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT, WITH 10% OR
GREATER PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS 75 MPH (HURRICANE FORCE) OR
HIGHER WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT. AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 HAVE A
10-15% CHANCE OF TORNADOES WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT WITH A 10%
OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADOES WITHIN 25
MILES OF A POINT. THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS AS FAR
NW AS JUST EAST OF THE IL RIVER, AND AREAS EAST OF THE IL RIVER
HAD A 10% OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF 2 INCH OR LARGER HAIL WITHIN
25 MILES OF A POINT.
SPC ISSUED A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (PWO) TO ADDRESS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF IL/IN INTO EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY. ILX WILL BE DOING A
SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TODAY IN SUPPORT OF THIS SEVERE WX RISK.
PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE EAST OF THE
IL RIVER.
CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL/IN AND INTO SOUTHEAST
MO TIED TO A MORE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING
WHILE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER CENTRAL IL CWA. A STRONG
981 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER FAR WEST CENTRAL MN AND WEAKER 1000
MB LOW IN CENTRAL KS. TEMPS AT 330 AM WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F IN SOUTHEAST IL. MUCH
DRIER AIR HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL IL WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE 45-50F NW OF THE IL RIVER, TO THE MID 60S FROM PARIS, TO
MATTOON TO EFFINGHAM SOUTHEAST.
A NEGATIVE TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY LATE TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER CENTRAL
IL. THIS WILL INCREASE SSW WINDS BACK TO BREEZY LEVELS DURING
MID/LATE MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH NORTH OF I-70 THIS
AFTERNOON AND WINDS TURN WSW TO SW. DESI HREF HAD 20-40% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR HIGHER FROM I-72 NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG INSTABILITY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES RISING TO
2000-3700 J/KG EAST OF THE IL RIVER BY 21Z/4 PM, HIGHEST IN
SOUTHEAST IL WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE 50-70 KTS. THE 0-3
KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO REACH 200-250 M2/S2 BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST IL.
CONVECTION TO START DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE IL RIVER DURING
MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONG AS IT SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN/SE IL DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. MOST OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF CWA
BY SUNSET. WARM HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THOUGH SHOULD
BE A BIT SHY OF RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF LAKE HURON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LIGHT WIND ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SW BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SW CWA LATER SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS DURING NEXT WEEK, WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
AND HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING PER BLENDED FORECAST. THOUGH MODELS
STILL DIFFER WITH EVOLUTION OF STORM SYSTEMS TRANSLATING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MO, MID MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS DURING MON THROUGH
WED FRAME. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY TO COOL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WED AND MID TO UPPER 60S THU. SEASONABLY COOL LOWS WED
AND THU NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
PATCHY FOG TO BE SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
MAINLY FROM I-70 SOUTH. OTHERWISE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 17-24
KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND VEER SW. A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ABOUT A 2 HOUR PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 20-24Z
STARTING AT PIA 1ST AND REACHING CMI LAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS OR HIGHER
POSSIBLE FROM I-55 EASTWARD. WINDS VEER WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AT 13-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 23-28 KTS WHICH
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BROKEN 4-6K FT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS SPREAD SE OVER THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS FROM 03-06Z TONIGHT
AND THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT SATURDAY MORNING.
07
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING
SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING RH VALUES INTO THE 20-30% RANGE NORTH OF I-72
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COMBINING THIS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR, SO WE RECOMMEND
LIMITING OR AT LEAST USING EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WITH ANY BURNING
ACTIVITIES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM I-72 NORTHWARD TO ADDRESS
THE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
BUMGARDNER/HUETTL
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
PEORIA IL TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 93F ON MAY 15TH WHICH WAS 1ST
SET IN 1894. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THIS DAY IS 74.
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MAY 16:
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
PEORIA IL TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 93F ON MAY 15TH WHICH WAS 1ST
SET IN 1894. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THIS DAY IS 74.
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY MAY 16:
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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