285
FXUS63 KILX 190908
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
408 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING ON WEDNESDAY AND WED EVENING
ESPECIALLY FROM I-74 NORTH. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE STORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 2" (20-40% CHANCE) ESPECIALLY OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY AND OVER SOUTHEAST IL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1032 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MI
TO NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SW
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL IL PAST FEW HOURS AND NEARING
JACKSONVILLE AND MOUNT STERLING IN BROWN COUNTY. ENE HAD
INCREASED TO 13-20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
MEANWHILE 996 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL KS WITH ONE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF AR/TN WHILE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL MI INTO SW KY, JUST SOUTH OF IL. MCS
ACTIVITY NOTED OVER EASTERN NE INTO SW IOWA AND NW MO WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG THE MO/IL
BORDER. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD OVER IL WITH
THICKER CLOUDS WEST OF I-57. ALOFT A 555 DM 500 MB LOW WAS ALONG
THE WESTERN SD/NE BORDER AND ANOTHER 555 DM 500 MB LOW OVER ID
WITH THESE EMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ROCKIES.
FURTHER EAST WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS OVER IL AND INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS
THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND
INTO MIDDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS OVERALL HAVE SHIFTED MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH/SW TODAY WITH RAP13 FURTHEST
NORTH WITH MUCAPES GETTING TO 1-2K J/KG FAR SW CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE
AND WITH WARM FRONT ONLY SLOWLY LIFTING INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL AND
INTO NE MO DURING THIS AFTERNOON, FEEL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE MORE SW OF OUR AREA THROUGH SUNSET TODAY. HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, MILDEST IN SOUTHEAST IL WITH BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH FROM I-72 NORTH, STRONGEST WINDS NW OF THE
IL RIVER.
THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE INTO FAR SW CWA BY 12Z/7 AM
TUE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET 850 MB SOUTH WINDS 35-50 KTS AND
PW VALUES GOING UP TO 1.4-1.7 INCHES LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE MCS ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD OVER CWA AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OVER CENTRAL AND SW CWA
OVERNIGHT (SW OF I-74). SPC SLIGHT RISK IS FROM SPRINGFIELD SW
TONIGHT WHERE 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND 5%
RISK OF TORNADOES. THE HATCHED AREA OF HAIL OVER 2 INCHES HAS
SHIFTED WEST OF WEST CENTRAL IL TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOME AREAS, BUT 6 HOURLY
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE 2.5-4 INCHES SO SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW THOSE LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S FROM
I-74 NORTHEAST, AND LOW TO MID 60S SW OF LINCOLN TO TERRE HAUTE.
WARM FRONT TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL ON TUESDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING TO OCCLUDE BY DAYS END OVER THE AREA.
SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK KEEPS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TUE (MAINLY
AFTERNOON HOURS) FROM JACKSONVILLE TO LINCOLN TO DANVILLE SOUTH
WITH MARGINAL RISK OVER REMAINDER OF CWA NORTH OF THERE WITH ALL
SEVERE WX ELEMENTS A RISK. AN ENHANCED RISK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
NORTH INTO WESTERN KY AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF IL WHERE
HATCHED AREA OF STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE (EF-2 OR STRONGER). WE
HAVE STRONG WIND SHEAR IN SOUTHEAST IL AND IF WE GET SOME
CLEARING/MORE HEATING THIS WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM
LOWER 70S NORTHERN CWA TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F FROM SPRINGFIELD
TO TERRE HAUTE SOUTH. BRUNT OF STORMS TO SHIFT EAST OF IL BY
SUNSET TUE WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING DURING TUE EVENING. LOWS TUE
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL IL AND MID 50S SOUTHEAST IL.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WED MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF DIGS INTO IL/IN OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. MODELS SHOW MORE QPF LINGERING WED ESPECIALLY
FROM I-74 NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THIS UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROF. MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WED IN CENTRAL IL WITH MID 60S SOUTHEAST OF I-70. BREEZY WEST TO
NW WINDS TO MAKE IF FEEL COOLER ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER CENTRAL/NE CWA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF PIVOTS SE OVER THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AND TO KEEP SOME CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AROUND. COOL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THU WITH LOWS WED
NIGHT IN MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL IL AND AROUND 50F SE IL. EVEN A
BIT COOLER THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WE CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING DRY WX THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
FORECAST MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH WX SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD
OVER THE COUNTRY THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GFS MUCH WETTER OVER
CENTRAL/SE IL ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF AND TO
SOME EXTENT GEM MODELS HAVE WX SYSTEM/QPF FURTHER SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSE TO BLENDED MODEL POPS OF 20-30% SAT AND
INCREASING TO 40-50% SUNDAY NIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPS MODIFY
SOME BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FRI/SAT AND LOW TO MID 70S BY MEMORIAL DAY. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 26-JUNE 1 HAS 45-50% CHANCE
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL IL AND GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IL.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, A MODEST EASTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER IA/NE OVERNIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MIDDAY MONDAY IN A DECAYING PHASE. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP
COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS
INITIATES OVER IA/MO LATE MONDAY EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE THIS NEXT LINE ONLY REACHING SPI
AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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