563
FXUS63 KILX 210908
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
408 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. DURING
THIS PERIOD, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
- THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY NORTHEAST OF
LINCOLN ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
I-74 THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-30%) OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (40-60%). THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
THE PREDAWN SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
KANKAKEE IN NORTHEAST IL WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF AND
OCCLUDING FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA,
NORTHERN IL, WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF KY/TN THAT HELPED
PRODUCED SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL ON TUE AFTERNOON, AND
EARLY TUE EVENING IN VERMILION COUNTY. ALOFT A STRONG 550 DM 500
MB LOW WAS ALONG THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BORDER AND A 557 DM 500 MB
LOW IN SOUTHEAST IOWA, AND THESE LOWS WERE EMBEDDED IN A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MIDWEST. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER THE QUAD CITIES AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD EL
PASO AND MOVING ENE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WERE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON TO TERRE HAUTE LINE, WITH
CEILINGS AROUND OR BELOW 1K FT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE
FROM I-74 NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED IN SOUTHEAST IL.
TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WITH WEST TO SW WINDS 8-16
MPH AND FEW GUSTS 18-24 MPH NORTH OF I-70.
LATEST CAMS MOVE LOW PRESSURE FROM NEAR KANKAKEE IL TO NEAR
CLEVELAND OHIO BY SUNSET WHILE A SURFACE TROF HANGS BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO NE IL. ALSO HAVE A 556 DM 500 MB LOW
MOVING TO NEAR CLEVELAND BY SUNSET WITH IL ESTABLISHED IN
CYCLONIC FLOW. SHORT WAVES MOVING FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL
IL TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AROUND TODAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
LINCOLN. ALSO SEEING PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING FROM I-74
NE AND HAVE A STRENGTHENING INVERSION DURING THIS MORNING THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS.
COOLER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL AND NE CWA WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NE OF I-74. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FROM SPRINGFIELD
SW AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SW CWA. BREEZY WEST TO NW WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THIS MORNING CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH
COMMON AND A FEW GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH OVER CENTRAL IL.
HAVE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NE CWA TONIGHT WITH LESS CLOUDS IN SW
CWA AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IN NE CWA. SEASONABLY
COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S CENTRAL IL AND AROUND 50F IN SOUTHEAST
IL. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD BUFFALO NY BY SUNSET THU
AND IL STILL CAUGHT UP IN ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. PLUS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PIVOTING SE INTO CENTRAL IL BY MIDDAY THU TO
SPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS SE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THU.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THU, MORE LOW CLOUDS OVER NE CWA
AGAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF CWA THU WITH SOME UPPER
50S POSSIBLE IN EAST CENTRAL IL. NW WINDS STILL GUSTING 20-25 MPH
TO ADD A CHILL TO THE AIR. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN IL EARLY THU EVENING, THEN DRY WITH LOW CLOUDS DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THU NIGHT WITH COOL LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S THU NIGHT. MORE SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY DURING
MORNING HOURS, LEADS TO A BIT MILDER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ON FRI BUT STILL NW WINDS PREVAIL THOUGH NOT AS GUSTY.
IL FIRMLY IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ESE INTO
THE MO VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL IL, THOUGH BRUNT OF RAIN CHANCES STAY SW OF CWA FRI NIGHT,
WE DO HAVE SLIGHT POPS SW OF SPRINGFIELD BY OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF IL BY DAWN SUNDAY. THIS TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO 30-50% OVER CENTRAL AND SW CWA SAT
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN NE CWA. HAVE HIGHEST POPS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH 50-80% POPS AND HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHERN/SW CWA. HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY, COOLEST OVER SOUTHERN
CWA WHERE MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S OVER AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MEMORIAL DAY THOUGH MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS ALONG WITH ITS
QPF FIELDS. ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS SOUTH OF CWA ON MONDAY WHILE GFS
BRINGS SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY AND GEM BRINGS
SHOWERS IN MON NIGHT AND TUE. BLENDED MODELS HAVE 40-50% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MON AND LOWER TO 20-30% POPS MON NIGHT AND TUE.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY AND MAY LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S
ON TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER IL AND POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY
28-JUN 3 HAS 35-45% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CWA
WITH SOUTHERN IL ABOVE 50% CHANCE. PRECIPITATION IS 33-40% CHANCE
BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF IL.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST, BUT
TRAILING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
SUPPORT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS WELL AS IFR CONDITIONS IS
ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUSTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT
RANGE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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