695
FXUS63 KILX 112344
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
644 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF I-55.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
- WHILE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, NO EXTREME
HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE RISK OF
HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES BEGINS TO BUILD LATER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS WITH A BIT OF SMOKE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME THICKER CIRRUS TO OUR SOUTHWEST
HEADED OUR WAY. WITH SOUTH WINDS, SOME MOISTURE HAS BEEN
ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER
60S IN MANY AREAS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN TEXAS, WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART, DRY WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
ARE SHOWING SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG BY
LATE AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF I-55, AHEAD OF A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF I-80. SOME 20%
POP'S ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER, BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CLOSER TO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO MISSOURI, WITH
THE HREF SHOWING ABOUT 40-50% PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
LIFTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH THE RAIN, THOUGH THE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN QUITE NOTICEABLE WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE.
LONGER RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRENDS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME DRY PERIODS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MCS
ACTIVITY IN THIS PATTERN.
GEELHART
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY. NAM CU-RULE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SCT TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY BKN CU AT AROUND
5000FT, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-55. SEVERAL CAMS ARE SHOWING
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING UP DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING ACROSS
WESTERN MISSOURI. AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW, SO HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE THUNDER AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE S AT LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT, THEN S/SW AT AROUND
10KT ON THURSDAY.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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