500
FXUS63 KILX 121100
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
60-80% CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. FRI-SUN RAINFALL OF 0.5-1.25" IS
EXPECTED EAST OF I-55.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXISTS OVER OK WITH GENERALLY
ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS IL TODAY, SPREADING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WE'LL ALSO SEE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN IL AHEAD OF THIS LOW TODAY. THE MAIN
THUNDER CHANCES WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON WHEN 500 TO MAYBE 1000
J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THE BEST
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE IN THE WEST NEAR THE IL RIVER AROUND MID
AFTERNOON. STILL, JUST EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WITHOUT A
SEVERE THREAT SINCE DEEP SHEAR IS SO LOW (10-15 KTS).
KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN CHANCES OF 60-80% WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA. WE'RE IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR FRIDAY, WITH CAPES GENERALLY
500-1000 J/KT AND DEEP SHEAR OF 10-25 KTS. HIGHS WILL DROP AROUND
5 DEGREES ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND
80 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST BOTH FRIDAY AND ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY GIVEN A MEAN OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE
IN THE ENSEMBLE. BUT THE 10KTS OF DEEP SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT.
AFTER SATURDAY, WE'LL SEE SOME RIPPLES IN THE JET TO THE NORTH AND
OFF AND ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE MUTED A BIT...LENDING TO WAVES COMING INTO
THE AREA IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE,
BUT IT'S HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME IF A SEVERE THREAT WILL
MATERIALIZE THIS FAR EAST NEXT WEEK.
KNUTSVIG
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
MIST HAS FORMED AT A FEW TERMINALS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULDN'T LAST LONG SINCE THE SUN IS UP ALREADY.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) IN THE SPI AND
PIA AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS AFFECTING
THE TERMINALS IS LOW, SO CONTINUED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO
30-50% ACROSS CENTRAL IL TERMINALS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING SO ADDED
A PROB30 GROUP. CHANCES ARE BETTER AFTER 12Z FRIDAY BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY AROUND
12Z INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
KNUTSVIG
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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