068
FXUS63 KILX 122359
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
659 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH OF THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ARE LOW, THOUGH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
- SEVERE STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH DETAILS AT THIS RANGE ARE SKETCHY.
- AN OVERALL HUMID WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HEAT RELATED IMPACTS BEGINNING TO INCREASE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR MORE MENACING THAN
REALITY, MAINLY PICKING UP MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS IN MISSOURI. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN
EASTERN PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA IS STILL PROJECTED TO BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS INTO ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY. A LOT
OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AS THE LOW MOVES INTO MISSOURI. WITH THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW MORE OR LESS TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FRIDAY NIGHT, AT A LESS FAVORABLE TIME, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE FAVORED EAST OF I-55.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS THROUGH ON SATURDAY, A DRY PERIOD SHOULD START
OFF THE DAY, BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP. THE LOW WILL
SLOW A BIT BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATER ON
SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF I-55,
LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE LONGER RANGE PATTERN IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE, WITH THE MODELS MAINLY FOCUSING IT NEAR THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES START TO SUPPRESS ITS
AMPLITUDE. POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY RAMPS UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS AS THESE WAVES TRACK INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
INTERNATIONAL MODELS FAVOR THEM TRACKING MORE WEST OF THE RIVER,
WHILE THE GFS SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER, ITS ENSEMBLE SUITE IS LESS IN AGREEMENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
WITHOUT ANY DECENT AGREEMENT, LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE WITH THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE, WHICH GIVES AROUND 40% POP'S FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH AROUND MID WEEK WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES AT THAT POINT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS WILL BE KEPT DOWN IN THE 70S WHERE THE
RAIN IS MORE PREVALENT, BEFORE A GENERAL TREND FURTHER INTO THE
80S OCCURS NEXT WEEK. THE EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK PRODUCT SHOWS
WIDESPREAD MODERATE IMPACTS BY WEDNESDAY, BORDERLINE MAJOR IN A
FEW AREAS, AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S BECOME MORE PREVALENT.
GEELHART
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SPREADING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 2350Z/650PM
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE OZARKS,
WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FURTHER NORTH. BASED
ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z...WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS BEGINNING AT KSPI BY 12Z AND
FURTHER NORTH TO THE I-74 TERMINALS BY 14Z/15Z. AS THE RAIN
BEGINS, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE MORNING, INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDER BY PEAK HEATING. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 20Z FRI AND 00Z SAT.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S AT 5-10KT THIS EVENING, THEN WILL BACK
TO SE ON FRIDAY.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page