821
FXUS63 KILX 131931
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
231 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
THEN WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 ON
SATURDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY, THIS AREA HAS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR A SURFACE WIND SHIFT.
- TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
ORDINARY FOR MID JUNE, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIRAL
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER TAPERING
OFF FOR AWHILE, SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER OUR AREA, AS
CLOUDS THINNED A BIT ALLOWING SURFACE CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO OVER
1000 J/KG. A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY EAST OF I-55.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FAVORING A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERN
TRACK WITH THE LOW, AND THUS RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED MORE SOUTHEAST WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-55 GENERALLY
REMAINING DRY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, NAM GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETERS GREATER THAN 1 FROM ABOUT
JACKSONVILLE TO OLNEY, ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS, SO A FEW
FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THIS AREA WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
LOW WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME DRIFTING EAST, REACHING NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
LINGERING SOUTH OF I-70 NEAR THE TRAILING BOUNDARY, THOUGH IT'S
LOOKING LIKE THE WEEKEND SHOULD END ON A DRY NOTE.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NEW
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO TRAVERSE
THE NORTHERN U.S. RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, BUT A DEEPENING TROUGH MID WEEK WILL BRING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE MIDWEST. SPC AND VARIOUS
MACHINE-LEARNING PROGS FAVOR WEDNESDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE
OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA, WITH DECENT AGREEMENT SEEN
IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVELY HOT. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 30%, WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME IF THEY DID OCCUR.
GEELHART
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BLANKETS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON COURTESY OF AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER MISSOURI.
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM TIME TO TIME,
PARTICULARLY ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A KPIA TO KDEC LINE. THINK THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON 1730Z/1230PM RADAR IMAGERY:
HOWEVER, AREAL COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ROBUST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MOST CAMS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER, SO
HAVE STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FEATURING A PROB30 GROUP
FOR THUNDER BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL FADE OUT AFTER SUNSET, BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT BOTH KDEC AND KCMI THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG I-70. CEILING FORECAST IS A
BIT TRICKY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING WHEN
THEY WILL EVENTUALLY COME DOWN. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND
LINGERING THROUGH 18Z SAT. IFR IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KDEC AND
KCMI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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