390
FXUS63 KILX 161812
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
112 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK, BECOMING VERY HOT
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT IS HIGHEST SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 F.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED
TO THE TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
A HIGHLY COMPLEX PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY AS A BARRAGE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CREST THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. EACH SHORTWAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPAWN ITS OWN AREA
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONGEALING INTO AN
MCS OVERNIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST, A DECAYING
COMPLEX OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF
THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RIDING ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND IS FORECAST TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF OUR I-70 COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
TODAY, BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THIS
AIRMASS.
THE MAIN THESIS FOR TUESDAY IS FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT IT CAN BE DEFENDED A
COUPLE DIFFERENT WAYS.
THE FIRST WAY IS VIA A DECAYING MCV, WHICH PUSHES ACROSS IOWA
TUESDAY MORNING AND SLUMPS INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN TIME FOR
PEAK HEATING. IT’S A CURIOUS SOLUTION, ONE MODELED PRIMARILY BY
THE HRRR. IT’S CURIOUS BECAUSE THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEING MODELED PRECEDES THE ARRIVAL OF THE MORE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS (LOW- AND MID-LEVEL JETS) BY SEVERAL HOURS. WE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. THERE HAVE BEEN MANY OCCASIONS
WHERE THE COARSER-RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS EXHIBIT UNFAVORABLE
KINEMATICS, ONLY FOR A DECAYING MCV TO UNEXPECTEDLY MOVE IN AND
AUGMENT THE SHEAR PROFILE. A LOT WOULD HAVE TO FALL PERFECTLY INTO
PLACE FOR THE RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE TO VERIFY, AND IT JUST SEEMS A
LITTLE FAR-FETCHED AT THIS POINT.
THE SECOND WAY FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL MUCH BETTER, WHICH IS FOR A
NOCTURNAL MCS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CORN
BELT, AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ON THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING LLJ. A QUICK GLANCE AT CAPE, SHEAR, LAPSE RATES AND
THE MEAN WIND SUPPORT HEALTHY COLD POOL MAINTENANCE DEEP INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE PURPORTED MCS PUSHES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS NARRATIVE IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 3KM NAM AND
FV3, THOUGH BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MCS RUNNING INTO DRY
AIR AND LOSING STEAM OVER ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
INCREASING KINEMATIC FIELDS COULD SUPPORT AN ATTENDANT THUNDERSTORM
WIND RISK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THE RISK FOR FLOODING COULD BE MORE
GERMANE. THE NBM MEAN QPF CONTINUES TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.5" ACROSS
THE ILX CWA DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE SPREAD (10TH TO
90TH PERCENTILE QPF) REMAINS LARGE; GENERALLY 0"-1.2”. AND THEN,
THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS THAT SUPPORT 3-4” OF QPF WITH MCS ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
TO BE CLEAR, THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR TUESDAY RANGE ANYWHERE
BETWEEN GETTING MISSED COMPLETELY TO GETTING HIT SQUARELY BY AN MCS.
NO CLEAR TREND EXISTS AMONG CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE, THOUGH IT MIGHT
BE A MATTER OF WHEN THE STORMS MOVE IN RATHER THAN IF.
WEDNESDAYS RISK FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL ON WHATEVER HAPPENS TUESDAY NIGHT. EITHER THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL RECOVER/DESTABILIZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
IMPENDING COLD FRONT, OR IT WON’T. IF IT DOES, THE PARAMETER SPACE
IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP/ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING.
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO RETURN FRIDAY. BY
THEN, A BROAD 588-MB RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CORN
BELT, BECOMING AMPLIFIED (594MB) BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A DEEP
WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES. DAILY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY, THEN LOWER 90S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AMID LOW
70S DEWPOINTS. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES BY
THE WEEKEND.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU HAS ONCE AGAIN BLOSSOMED ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WERE INITIALLY MVFR,
BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE TO LOW VFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE
CU DISSIPATES TOWARD SUNSET. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING, LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS, AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, THE STAGE WILL BE SET
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. CAMS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE HRRR/RAP/GFSLAMP ALL FOCUSING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD LOW VISBYS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A KAAA TO KMTO LINE. HAVE
LOWERED VISBYS INTO 3-6 MILE RANGE AT ALL SITES AFTER 09Z/10Z
ACCORDINGLY. AS THE FOG DISSIPATES, AN MVFR CEILING WILL PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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