488
FXUS63 KILX 242306
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
606 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
AND SOME CITIES RISING ABOVE 110 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER SOUTH OF I-72 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THAT MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM I-72 NORTH FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- STORM CHANCES (40-60%) WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY, PEAKING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A 60-80% CHANCE FOR HEAT INDICES OVER
105 BOTH DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM ACROSS CENTRAL IL FOR
HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 AND LOCALLY HIGHER ABOVE 110F. EXTENDED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 FROM CHRISTIAN COUNTY
EASTWARD TO EDGAR COUNTIES AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY FOR
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F OR HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT MID AFTERNOON
FROM CHICAGO SW TO NEAR MACOMB IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SE INTO THE
IL RIVER VALLEY AND TO SPAWN ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST MID EVENING.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTHERN/NE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ALSO AS RISK AS WPC ERO HAS SLIGHT RISK OVER AREAS
FROM I-72 TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR STARK,
PEORIA, TAZEWELL AND MCLEAN COUNTIES NORTHEAST.
AN MCV OVER NW MO TO TRACK EASTWARD AND DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION
INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NORTHERN/NW CWA.
WPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AGAIN OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL FRI AND FRI NIGHT WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE TOO. HIGH HEAT AND HUMID TO CONTINUE FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-72 WHERE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED.
HIGHS FRIDAY 85-90F OVER CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-72.
DEWPOINTS STILL 75-80F ON FRIDAY TO GIVE THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES
AGAIN.
MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CWA AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A RISK. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF I-72 ON SATURDAY FOR DAMAGING WINDS
A RISK. HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD BACK INTO CENTRAL IL
DURING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. HEAT INDICES SAT AFTERNOON 100-105 AND 105-110 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES 105-115 MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 105-110 TUE
AFTERNOON LIKELY. COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL IL TUE
NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST IL WED TO BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
AND STARTING COOLING US OFF WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S THU WITH SOME
UPPER 70S POSSIBLE NORTH OF PEORIA.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT'S VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO
PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING AND HAVE TRENDED THE TIMING OF THE PROB30
GROUPS TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE
CLEAR. OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF STORMS, ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>051-053.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ052-054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
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