116
FXUS63 KILX 250819
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
319 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PROBABILITY (5-15% CHANCE) OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE TODAY. THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL SPREAD
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN REACH 105-115.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY (50-70% CHANCE) THAT HIGHS DROP
BELOW 80 DEGREES BY NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING FROM KANSAS
CITY NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY.
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL STEADILY
DECREASE TOWARD MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY JUST A 30-40% CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500J;KG: HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK. THE 00Z HREF SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG/NORTH OF
I-72 WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR MORE THAN 25KT INCREASES TO 30-40%. GIVEN THE SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, THINK A FEW PULSE-TYPE CELLS WILL POSE THE RISK OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING PEAK HEATING.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK 25-30KT 850MB JET ORIENTED FROM TEXAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WANES, SCATTERED STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE ALONG/NEAR ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION, WIND SHEAR MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH THE HREF SHOWING THE PROBABILITY OF
SBCAPES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR MORE THAN 25KT
INCREASING TO 50-70% ALONG/NORTH OF I-74. AS A RESULT, THINK A FEW
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN POSE A LOW RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
..OPPRESSIVE HEAT RETURNS IN EARNEST
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
GET NUDGED NORTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THANKS TO RISING UPPER HEIGHTS, DECREASING RAIN CHANCES, AND A
RETURN TO S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE BOARD...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 105-115 DEGREE RANGE. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE FOR TODAY. THIS WILL MOST CERTAINLY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE KILX CWA BY SUNDAY.
..MUCH COOLER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE LATER NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SUPPRESSES THE PREVAILING RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z
NBM EVEN SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY (50-70% CHANCE) THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 80 DEGREES EVERYWHERE NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR BY NEXT THURSDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KPIA AND
KBMI. THE FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
IS RATHER LOW. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MODIFIED IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ052-054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
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