159  
FXUS63 KILX 280646  
AFDILX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
146 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST  
ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DANGEROUS HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR THE WHOLE AREA, AND IN  
SOUTHEAST IL FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 
- A DECAYING MCS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS  
NORTH OF I-72 THIS MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG MCS LOOKS TO COME  
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE  
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG-TO-SEVERE AS WELL.  
 
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO  
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG  
STORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
 
THERE IS A MCS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA TONIGHT,  
WHICH WILL TRACK DOWN TO CENTRAL IL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT  
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT TRAVELS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR  
IS SHOWING THIS MCS/LINE OF STORMS DECAYING AS IT ARRIVES BUT  
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN AS FAR AS THE I-55 CORRIDOR LATER THIS  
MORNING. THE NAMNEST IS SHOWING THIS DECAYING LINE GETTING AS FAR AS  
A LINE OF CHAMPAIGN TO JACKSONVILLE. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OR  
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL ACROSS CENTRAL IL.  
 
WE ARE FORECAST TO GET INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN TODAY.  
HOWEVER, THE LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER, WHETHER OR NOT THERE  
ARE STORMS, COULD IMPACT HOW QUICKLY WE ACHIEVE THE HEAT INDICES  
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. WE HAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 17Z  
TODAY TO 01Z TUESDAY (12PM-8PM TODAY), WITH THE HEAT INDICES RANGING  
FROM 110-120 DEGREES. WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNING  
CRITERIA, ALL DEPENDING ON WHEN THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DECIDES TO  
PASS THROUGH.THANKS  
 
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY. MODELS ARE  
SHOWING ANOTHER MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL  
IL. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HOLD TOGETHER BETTER THAN TONIGHTS. THE HRRR  
SHOWS 50-60 KNOT WINDS AS IT ENTER KNOX COUNTY JUST AFTER 06Z  
TONIGHT, THEN DECAYING PRETTY RAPIDLY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY  
ON IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP ITS STRENGTH, BUT IF IT DOES, WE  
COULD SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. MORE  
DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY GETTING VERY CLOSE TO 120 DEGREE FEEL  
LIKE TEMPS.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY,  
BRINGING MORE STRONG TO (MAYBE) SEVERE STORMS AND MORE HEAVY RAIN.  
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SOUTHEASTERN IL MAY  
HAVE ANOTHER VERY SWELTERING DAY IN STORE. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, IT  
WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.  
 
THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CPC SHOWS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WON'T LAST  
LONG, UNFORTUNATELY. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS TEMPERATURES GOING  
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
COPPLE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
 
AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN IOWA IS FORECAST TO  
CONTINUE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE  
FAVOR THE COMPLEX TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 11-16Z,  
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING STATE BY THIS TIME. A TEMPO GROUP  
HAS BEEN ADDED AT KPIA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
AND GUSTY WINDS, WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THE REMAINING AIRFIELDS.  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD,  
THOUGH DO THINK WE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
DAY. HOWEVER, THIS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE UPDATES.  
 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST LATER TODAY, WITH SPEEDS  
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
NMA  
 

 
   
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.  
 

 
 

 
 
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