948
FXUS63 KILX 281014
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
514 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR THE WHOLE AREA, AND IN
SOUTHEAST IL FOR WEDNESDAY.
- A DECAYING MCS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS
NORTH OF I-72 THIS MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG MCS LOOKS TO COME
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG-TO-SEVERE AS WELL.
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG
STORMS, HEAVY RAIN AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
THERE IS A MCS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL TRACK DOWN TO CENTRAL IL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT TRAVELS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THIS MCS/LINE OF STORMS DECAYING AS IT ARRIVES BUT
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN AS FAR AS THE I-55 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
MORNING. THE NAMNEST IS SHOWING THIS DECAYING LINE GETTING AS FAR AS
A LINE OF CHAMPAIGN TO JACKSONVILLE. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
WE ARE FORECAST TO GET INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER, THE LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER, WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE STORMS, COULD IMPACT HOW QUICKLY WE ACHIEVE THE HEAT INDICES
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. WE HAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 17Z
TODAY TO 01Z TUESDAY (12PM-8PM TODAY), WITH THE HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 110-120 DEGREES. WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA, ALL DEPENDING ON WHEN THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DECIDES TO
PASS THROUGH.THANKS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL
IL. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HOLD TOGETHER BETTER THAN TONIGHTS. THE HRRR
SHOWS 50-60 KNOT WINDS AS IT ENTER KNOX COUNTY JUST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, THEN DECAYING PRETTY RAPIDLY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP ITS STRENGTH, BUT IF IT DOES, WE
COULD SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. MORE
DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY GETTING VERY CLOSE TO 120 DEGREE FEEL
LIKE TEMPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING MORE STRONG TO (MAYBE) SEVERE STORMS AND MORE HEAVY RAIN.
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SOUTHEASTERN IL MAY
HAVE ANOTHER VERY SWELTERING DAY IN STORE. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, IT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CPC SHOWS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WON'T LAST
LONG, UNFORTUNATELY. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS TEMPERATURES GOING
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A DECAYING SQUALL LINE. CEILINGS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DECAYING LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS, MAINLY BETWEEN
12-15Z. SHORT TERM MODELS THEN QUICKLY ERODE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND SCATTER LOW CLOUDS AWAY BY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, THINKING
THAT SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON STORM DEBRIS
MIXING OUT, AND HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO 18Z.
SOME CONCERN IS EMERGING FOR ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ENTER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE AND
COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TAFS, BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING TRENDS TO SEE IF ADDING A PROB30 FOR TSRA
BECOMES NECESSARY.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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