359
FXUS63 KILX 290638
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
138 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 105-115 F.
- A STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT TOMORROW, BRINGING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THERE IS A VERY STRONG MCS PROGRESSING ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. BASED ON
THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE COMPLEX, IT SHOULD BE GETTING INTO KNOX
COUNTY BETWEEN 8-10Z. AS IT TRAVELS EAST ACROSS IOWA, IT WILL BEGIN
TO DIVE INTO A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION, AND POTENTIALLY LOSE SPEED, AS
IT ENTERS IL LATER TONIGHT. IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A GUST FRONT
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE, WHICH SHOULD SLOW ITS MOTION
SOME. THE HRRR AND NAMNEST SHOWS THE COMPLEX QUICKLY
DECAYING/DISSIPATING AS IT ENTER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THE QLCS TO HOLD STRENGTH AND NOT DECAY IN, OR JUST
BEFORE, OUR CWA IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, WE SHOULDN'T SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS,
WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES. TODAY IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER
SWELTERING, MAKE YOU FEEL LIKE YOU ARE MELTING, DAY. HEAT INDICES
WILL GET UP TO 110-115 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
01Z TONIGHT (8PM TONIGHT) ONCE AGAIN.
WAIT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY!! A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, BRINGING MORE STRONG TO (MAYBE) SEVERE
STORMS AND MORE HEAVY RAIN. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC TOMORROW.
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SOUTHEASTERN IL MAY
HAVE ANOTHER VERY SWELTERING DAY IN STORE. THE MOST IMPORTANT
FEATURE OF THIS FRONT IS THAT IT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE A REFRESHING
BREAK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S INTO THE NEW WEEK.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO APPEARS TO GIVE US A BREAK IN THE WETTER PATTERN
AS WELL.
THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CPC SHOWS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WON'T
LAST LONG, UNFORTUNATELY. THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS TEMPERATURES
GOING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE HAVE ALLOWED
SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS
VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO MVFR OR LOWER CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH IMPROVEMENT BEFORE 15Z. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT DIVES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS STRUGGLE TO
DEPICT IT'S LIFESPAN THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS, SO KEPT PROB30 GROUPS
IN PLACE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES FOR THE TIME BEING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED TO MODIFY THIS FURTHER. CONFIDENCE IN LATER
DAY/EVENING STORM CHANCES IS RATHER LOW, SO REFRAINED FROM ADDING
ANY MENTION OF IT AT THIS TIME.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027-029-036-037-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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