800
FXUS63 KILX 261054
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
554 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
- THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER THURSDAY, MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10%
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
***** COOL AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK *****
LIKE YESTERDAY, A SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW OUR CHILLY
MORNING. FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S, WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS AND A GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZE AROUND 5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL IL,
LEADING TO LIGHT TO PERHAPS CALM WINDS, SO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WE'D EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. EACH
DAY TOMORROW AND THURSDAY, WE'LL ADD A COUPLE DEGREES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS THE EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WE GET AN
ANEMIC PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST HIGHS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING 79
TO 82 DEGREES.
***** SPOTTY SHOWER THURSDAY? *****
WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, FORCING IS SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST RESULT IN
MENTIONABLE SHOWER CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUGHLY THE I-74
CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NBM CONTINUES TO PAINT 15-20%
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. RAIN AMOUNTS OUT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
CHANCES FOR MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN ANY LOCATION LESS THAN
5%.
***** COOL, LOW BUT NONZERO RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND *****
THERE STILL REMAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
EVOLVES THIS WEEKEND. EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUGGESTS SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE RIPPLING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGIONS, BUT THERE'S NO PERCEPTIBLE ALIGNMENT OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY ON THE PRECISE PLACEMENT OR TIMING OF THESE FEATURES; IN
ADDITION, SOME OF THEM MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH OR HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO EVEN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME,
CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES IN ANY 6 HOUR
PERIOD ARE LESS THAN 10% THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT CERTAINLY NOT 0.
AMIDST ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW AND WITH WEAK TROUGHING IN PLACE,
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
BUMGARDNER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING INTO THE REGION,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ONLY CLIMB TO 6-9 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING (PERHAPS GOING CALM AFTER
05Z/MIDNIGHT). SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF IA/MN ARE SLATED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA MID MORNING, WITH
DIURNAL CU AROUND FL060 DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS LATER. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
BUMGARDNER
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:
LOCATION TODAY WEDNESDAY
-------- -------- ---------
BLOOMINGTON 42 (1910) 43 (1894)
CHAMPAIGN 46 (1910) 46 (1904)
CHARLESTON 46 (1910) 45 (1910)
DECATUR 44 (1910) 45 (1910)
LINCOLN 37 (1910) 39 (1910)
OLNEY 44 (1917) 48 (1968)
PEORIA 41 (1910) 43 (1910)
SPRINGFIELD 48 (1885) 51 (2015)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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