499
FXUS63 KILX 262309
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
609 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
- THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE I-74
CORRIDOR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS AFTERNOON, A 1025MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER MO/IA WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS IS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AGAIN IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT UNDER
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS INCHES
EAST OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS
HELPING TO PROP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. ALOFT, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE FURTHER SOUTHWEST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIG ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COL AREA IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE LIMITED AND CUT OFF BY STORMS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 700-500MB LIMITING THE DEPTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL CONVECTION. THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING WILL
LIMIT POPS THURSDAY TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT, BUT THIS STILL
REPRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL BE FAVORED LOCALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND RETURNING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AROUND 5-10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
37
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:
LOCATION TODAY WEDNESDAY
-------- -------- ---------
BLOOMINGTON 42 (1910) 43 (1894)
CHAMPAIGN 46 (1910) 46 (1904)
CHARLESTON 46 (1910) 45 (1910)
DECATUR 44 (1910) 45 (1910)
LINCOLN 37 (1910) 39 (1910)
OLNEY 44 (1917) 48 (1968)
PEORIA 41 (1910) 43 (1910)
SPRINGFIELD 48 (1885) 51 (2015)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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