568
FXUS63 KILX 291052
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE LOVELY, ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL,
FOR ONE LAST GASP AT SUMMERTIME ADVENTURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST.
- A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK COULD USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT HIGHS GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES
THURSDAY.
- THERE IS ~30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE LOVELY, ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL, FOR
ONE LAST GASP AT SUMMERTIME ADVENTURES. DRY CONDITIONS LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BREAK THIS PATTERN
OF QUIET WEATHER, BUT WILL POTENTIALLY USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR HIGHS TO ONLY GET UP INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S, STARTING THURSDAY. THE NBM IS
SHOWING A MAX OF A 30% CHANCE THAT HIGHS GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES
THURSDAY. THE LREF IS THINKING THE SAME WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF
HIGHS GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES. LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE MODELS,
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REBOUND BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK IS THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO SAY FOR
CERTAIN WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL BE SEVERE. AS OF
THIS FORECAST, NONE OF THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE SHOWING ANY
HINT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.
THE EURO AND GFS SHOW SOME HINT AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS ~30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY TODAY. DEC WILL HAVE A BRIEF OUT OF LOWERED
VIS DUE TO SOME VERY LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD CLEAR
OUT PRETTY QUICKLY, GIVE IT ANOTHER HOUR OR 2. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
COPPLE
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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