403
FXUS63 KILX 291721
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE LOVELY, ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL,
FOR ONE LAST GASP AT SUMMERTIME ADVENTURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST.
- A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK COULD USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT HIGHS GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES
THURSDAY.
- THERE IS ~30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE LOVELY, ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL, FOR
ONE LAST GASP AT SUMMERTIME ADVENTURES. DRY CONDITIONS LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE REGION UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BREAK THIS PATTERN
OF QUIET WEATHER, BUT WILL POTENTIALLY USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR HIGHS TO ONLY GET UP INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S, STARTING THURSDAY. THE NBM IS
SHOWING A MAX OF A 30% CHANCE THAT HIGHS GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES
THURSDAY. THE LREF IS THINKING THE SAME WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF
HIGHS GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES. LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE MODELS,
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REBOUND BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK IS THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO SAY FOR
CERTAIN WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL BE SEVERE. AS OF
THIS FORECAST, NONE OF THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE SHOWING ANY
HINT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.
THE EURO AND GFS SHOW SOME HINT AT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS ~30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
WITH A BROKEN CU FIELD DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE. OBSERVED CEILINGS WITHIN THIS CU FIELD HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN 4-6 KFT, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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