815
FXUS63 KILX 300655
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
155 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE LOVELY, ALBEIT COOLER THAN NORMAL,
FOR ONE LAST GASP AT SUMMERTIME ADVENTURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK COULD USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY. THERE IS ONLY A 15-30% CHANCE THAT HIGHS GET ABOVE 70
DEGREES THURSDAY AND ~30% CHANCE THAT LOWS WILL BE BELOW 45
DEGREES FRIDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN ~30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE REGION UNTIL A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BREAK THIS
PATTERN OF QUIET, DRY WEATHER, BUT WILL POTENTIALLY USHER IN EVEN
COOLER AIR BRIEFLY. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE IN WEST CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO AS A FRONT LINGERS IN THE VICINITY, INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR HIGHS TO ONLY GET UP INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S, STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW THE 540 THICKNESS LINE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN IL CURRENTLY. THE
NBM IS SHOWING 15-30% CHANCE THAT HIGHS GET ABOVE 70 DEGREES
THURSDAY. THE LREF IS THINKING THE SAME WITH A ~15% CHANCE OF HIGHS
GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, WITH
LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 40S. THERE IS A ~30% CHANCE THAT LOWS
WILL BE BELOW 45 DEGREES FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
REBOUND BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND TO THE 70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S
AT NIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK ALSO HAS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO SAY FOR CERTAIN WHERE THEY
WILL DEVELOP. SAME AS YESTERDAY, NONE OF THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANY HINT THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
A WEAKLY FORCED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH NEAR THE
KPIA AREA, WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN OR NON-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN CENTRAL IL TAFS
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER TO DEVELOP AROUND 6000 FT AGL, WITH NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TOWARD WESTERN IL, HOWEVER,
AGAIN THESE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS GENERALLY E-SE 3-7 KTS THROUGH UPCOMING 24 HOURS.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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