233
FXUS63 KILX 311825
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP INDICATED A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT EAST
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPLY SEASONABLY
LOW 50S DEW POINTS TO THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
HIGHER DEW POINT POOL TO OUR WEST IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
IA AND NORTHERN MO. HOWEVER WITH THE SUBSIDENT EFFECTS OF THE
BLOCKING RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY, THE ONLY IMPACT
WILL BE PASSING CLOUDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN IL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 80F AND MID- UPPER
50S LOWS.
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MIDWEST BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN
CANADA, AND A BUCKLING UPPER JET WILL SEND A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PASS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MEAGER, SO FORECAST OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS (40-60% CHANCE) AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE NBM. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A MORE FALL-LIKE AIRMASS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES FOR LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LOW. THUS LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME SIGNS FOR ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXTENDING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
25
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
ANOTHER SET OF VFR TAFS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS UNDER 10 KT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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