052
FXUS63 KILX 121738
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
INTRODUCING THE RISK FOR FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
SEPTEMBER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO RULE THE WEATHER PATTERN TO END
OUT THIS WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WAA IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK,
DROPPING TO ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT. THE HOTTEST DAY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-100
DEGREES. THERE IS A 50-75% CHANCE OF HIGHS BEING GREATER THAN 95
DEGREES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE IL RIVER VALLEY
AREA HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THESE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S INTO THE 90S WILL BE EXITING ANYTIME SOON. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE TEMPERATURES LASTING WELL INTO THE
END OF THE MONTH. THE CPC AGREES AND KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS.
THE FORECAST IS **BASICALLY** DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS AT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (15-30% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO EFFINGHAM LINE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED OVER NORTHEASTERN IL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WON'T BE ALL THAT IMPACTFUL. CURRENTLY, THE NBM IS
SHOWING A 20% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.1" OUT OF THAT SHOWERY ACTIVITY.
THE GFS IS SHOWING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER, INFLUENCING OUR
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL IL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z/1 PM SATURDAY. THOUGH LATEST CAMS
(FV3 AND HRRR) ARE TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH CONVECTION
GETTING CLOSER TO I-74 SAT MORNING. ADDED VCSH TO BMI FROM 13-18Z
SAT AND AT CMI FROM 14-18Z SAT. THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT BMI AND CMI IF CONVECTION OCCURS SAT MORNING ALONG
WITH GUSTIER WINDS. OTHERWISE FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 4-8K FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM
HIGHWAY 51 (BMI AND DEC) EASTWARD. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
TO REDEVELOP DURING SAT MORNING WITH BASES OF 3.5-5K FT. WILL SEE
PASSING THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SSE WINDS 5-10
KTS TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.
07
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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